Saturday’s Bristol Night Race is more than another edition of a premier event in racing. It also serves as the cutoff race for the NASCAR playoffs Round of 16 for the fifth consecutive season.
By virtue of his win at Atlanta (Sept. 8), Joey Logano is the only playoff driver safe from elimination.
Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs are tied for the final transfer spot to the Round of 12. Denny Hamlin is currently below the cut line, with Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr. and Harrison Burton also needing big performances to advance.
With the stage set for the 29th race of the 2024 season, here are five predictions for Saturday’s nighttime action at Bristol Motor Speedway:
–Carson Hocevar will, for all intents and purposes, clinch the ROTY award
Fellow Rookie of the Year contender Josh Berry may be stronger on short tracks, but the two drivers are moving in very different directions.
Berry hasn’t finished inside the top 20 since Richmond on Aug. 11, while Hocevar has five top-16 finishes — three top-10s among those — and a third-place effort at Watkins Glen in that same span. Berry’s 12th-place finish at Bristol in March trumps Hocevar’s 27th-place finish. Still, the momentum is all the side of the No. 77 team with eight races to go. A 45-point advantage for Hocevar over Berry will only grow on Saturday; Berry won’t be able to catch up.
–Bright playoff lights melt Truex, No. 19 team for second consecutive season
It’s a shame Truex’s final playoff run could culminate in a first-round exit. But it’s the most likely scenario for a No. 19 team that sits 14 points below the cut line.
Truex’s playoff collapse in 2023 was salvaged by an abundance of playoff points that led to the Round of 8, but no such insurance exists this time for the 2017 champion. Truex hasn’t finished better than 20th since Pocono on July 14, and while he was second at Bristol in March, Saturday night will be a struggle for a driver who seems mentally checked out of the 2024 season.
–Denny Hamlin advances to the Round of 12 … by the skin of his teeth
All signs point to Hamlin being the driver making a shocking Round of 16 exit on Saturday.
A six-point deficit to the cut line and finishes of 24th and 23rd in the first two playoff races don’t exactly inspire confidence in the veteran driver, but the No. 11 team will be able to piece together enough speed for Hamlin to barely find his way into the second round. Whether he goes any further remains to be seen, but the winner of the past two Bristol races will find a way to keep his season alive.
–Bubba Wallace proves worth after contract extension, continuing late-season tear
Five top-10 finishes in the final eight races of the regular season weren’t enough for Wallace to make the postseason for the second consecutive season.
But the Mobile, Ala., native was rewarded with a multiyear contract extension from 23XI Racing on Wednesday. Wallace missed the playoffs while 11th-hour wins from Burton and Briscoe helped nudge him out of the championship running.
But he was 12th in points after 26 races, and has already matched his career best in every statistic other than wins. The No. 23 team has potential to go on a late tear to end the year, and while it may not start at Bristol, Wallace shows over the final eight weeks of the season why he was worthy of a new deal.
–Cindric, Bowman and Suarez survive and advance
For Austin Cindric, (+43) Alex Bowman, (+41) and Daniel Suarez, the task is simple: Survive 500 laps at Bristol and earn a ticket to the Round of 12.
Surviving 500 circuits at the Last Great Colosseum is easier said than done, but all three drivers have risen to the occasion through the first two races of the postseason. Most had Cindric, Bowman and Suarez circled as first-round exits, but catastrophe-free nights at Bristol stand as the only deterrent to a Round of 12 berth.
It won’t be easy to come home with a clean car on Saturday evening, but all three playoff underdogs do enough to advance.
–By Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media