After Kyle Larson’s dominant performance in Saturday’s Bristol Night Race, the NASCAR Cup Series playoff field was whittled down from 16 drivers to 12. Ty Gibbs, Brad Keselowski, Harrison Burton and Martin Truex Jr. all saw their postseason hopes come to an end at Bristol, and four more drivers will be eliminated after Charlotte on Oct. 13.
With the playoff grid reset, here are the storylines to follow before the Round of 12, comprised of Kansas, Talladega and the Charlotte Roval.
Will Talladega be Larson’s death knell, or just a bump in the road?
Larson’s relationship with superspeedway racing has always been rocky. Ever since he finished 38th in his inaugural Daytona 500 start in 2014, he’s been snakebitten on drafting tracks. Talladega is in between two of Larson’s best tracks, but if he fails to win at Kansas, a disastrous day at Talladega could end up being the nail in the coffin of his playoff hopes. You can’t count him out at the Charlotte Roval, but it’s not wrong to say that Kansas could make or break his title hopes. Talladega doesn’t care about your championship aspirations — a truth ever since the track was a part of the inaugural Chase schedule in 2004.
Hamlin’s hopes on life support
Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 team have made one fact very apparent over the last month — momentum matters. A crippling penalty that voided 10 playoff points after Michigan sent the team into a postseason spiral. Finishes of 24th and 23rd at Atlanta and Watkins Glen forced Hamlin to drive the race of his life at Bristol. A fourth-place finish earned him a Round of 12 bid, but the speed just isn’t under the hood like it needs to be at the moment. Hamlin’s drafting acumen has been significantly nullified with NASCAR’s Next Gen car, meaning Talladega isn’t a race he’s guaranteed to be up front in.
Blaney, Byron look to repeat 2023 performances
Defending champion Ryan Blaney and William Byron both won in the Round of 12 last season, and parlayed those victories into Championship Four appearances at Phoenix. Byron’s win came in the round’s opener at Texas, the 1.5-mile track that’s been swapped with Kansas this year. Unsurprisingly, Blaney’s triumph came at Talladega, where he’s now won three races in the last four years. A win isn’t necessary for either driver to advance, but it wouldn’t hurt to guarantee a Round of 8 berth early.
‘Bowman the Showman’ no longer an underdog
Getting through the first round may have been the most pivotal step in Bowman’s championship chase. He earned finishes of seventh and fifth at Kansas and Talladega earlier in the season, and in five races at the Charlotte Roval, he’s never finished outside of the top-10. This round shapes up well for Bowman, who’s also won at Las Vegas and Martinsville in his career — tracks that make up two of the three races in the Round of 8.
Finally… who is eliminated?
With every passing round, the margin for error gets slimmer. The best teams and drivers will rise to the top after this round. Here are the four drivers I’m picking to miss the Round of 8.
Austin Cindric
Cindric has made it to the Round of 12 for the second time in three seasons. He may have silenced his critics in the first round, but the No. 2 team simply doesn’t have the speed or pedigree behind it to knock out one of the favorites. Cindric’s best chance at advancing could be a win at Talladega, but putting all of your eggs into that basket isn’t advisable. A solid postseason run for Cindric will come to an end at Charlotte.
Daniel Suarez
Much like Cindric, the No. 99 team overperformed in the first round. However, Trackhouse as a whole has been a tick off in 2024, and it’s hard to trust a driver who finished 31st in the elimination race at Bristol, only saved by a cushion built up at Atlanta and Watkins Glen. Suarez can’t be completely written off, but his second playoff run with Trackhouse will end just like his first.
Chase Briscoe
“The Lady in Black” may have slipped on Briscoe’s glass slipper when he won the Southern 500, but the cruel hand of the Charlotte Roval will finally wrangle it off. Briscoe managed to make a Cinderella run to the Round of 8 in 2022, but he doesn’t have the speed that he did two years ago. The Roval does provide an excellent opportunity for Briscoe to snag a win, but excellence is the requirement to advance to the Round of 8. The No. 14 team may have the hopes of an entire organization on their back, but like Cindric and the No. 2 team, they don’t have enough speed to knock out the big dogs.
Denny Hamlin
Call it crazy, abominable or whatever other word you want to use — Hamlin barely clawed his way into the Round of 12, and if he doesn’t win at Kansas, things could go south very quickly. It seems ill-advised to bet against one of the best drivers of the 21st century, but Hamlin is infamous for coming up short when the chips are down. For the 19th consecutive season, it won’t be Denny Hamlin’s year to hoist the Cup.
–Samuel Stubbs, Field Level Media