Matchup: FAU (2-5, 0-3 AAC) vs USF (2-4, 0-2 AAC)
When: Friday, November 1st, 7:30 PM
Where: FAU Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Radio: FoxSports 640
Opening Line: FAU +2.5
Weather Forecast: Here
The Series: The Owls trail 2-3.
Owl Notes
The new-age “rivalry” is here as USF is headed to town for a Friday night showdown with FAU in a game which both teams desperately need to win.
Both USF and FAU come into this one off of a bye and for the Owls it was a much needed week of rest to get healthy and attempt to wipe the slate clean after back to back losses where they entered the 4th quarter either tied or with the lead.
FAU executed one of their best performances on both sides of the ball against North Texas. The Owls got a season high in passing yards, largely in part due to a blocking clinic from the offensive line and defensively they got solid pass rushing performances and forced a takeaway, however they ultimately fell short. A week later, the offense sputtered as WR injuries and inconsistencies all around plagued the unit, and while the defense forced 3 takeaways, they were on the field far too much and UTSA found a way to find holes in the defense.
Despite their struggles at times this season this game brings a lot to the table and one the Owls have to get up for. Not only is it important if FAU wants to try to turn things around and push for a bowl game, but an in-state battle against a conference opponent is a game that will have many impacts both on and off of the field.
The Owls haven’t found a way to put together consistent performances on either side of the ball this season, however the bright spots have been there and this game will have to be a culmination of them all. Offensively, against UNT Cam Fancher and the Owls offense were able to move the ball effectively through the air, however they also got solid contributions on the ground from Cj Campbell and Zuberi Mobley, as well as Fancher.
The fast paced offense that USF runs can be hard to stop if it is operating at a high level, however when it stalls it can lead to a defense that is forced onto the field a lot more than it needs to be. In this one the FAU offense will have to capitalize upon the amount of time USF’s defense is on the field, executing a strong run game with their backs and Fancher and finding a way to dominate time of possession.
Obviously FAU needs to find a way to pass the ball like they did against North Texas in this one, however what led them to be successful in that one was their ability to use the run game when needed. Going up against a USF offense that has failed to find its identity, dominating time of possession will make it that much harder for them to do so in this one.
In terms of the pass game, USF has struggled recently, allowing a career high 384 yards to UAB backup Jalen Kitna and 300+ yards passing in 3 out of their last 4 games, however the 1 game they didn’t was impressive as they limited Seth Henigan to 208 passing yards and only 5.2 yards per completion. FAU will need to find ways to get their playmakers the ball in space, assuming Omari Hayes is active, if he can find momentum early that will help the pass-game develop. The Owls success offensively, will be in large part due to how much they are able to limit the USF offense as at times with Bryce Archie the Bulls offense has been anemic and when that happens, as previously mentioned, that can tire out the defense.
Coming off their best pass rushing performance of the season against UTSA, the Owls will have to find a way to get after Archie and make him uncomfortable. He brings a solid dual-threat game to the table, however he has struggled under pressure at times this season and that is something the Owls can use to put this offense behind the 8-ball. USF still has multiple weapons at WR, including Sean Atkins and Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen and FAU has to keep them in check, however without the dynamic threat of Byrum Brown this offense has lacked explosive plays recently.
If the FAU defense is able to limit USF, how teams have been able to without Byrum Brown while potentially forcing takeaways, that opens a path to success for the Owls. The path can be created from the defense, however the offense has to execute and find a way to run the ball effectively, ultimately building the pass game off of that. The Owls haven’t been consistent offensively, but they have been successful both through the Air at times, but on the ground a lot this season. This game they have to find to put all of the good they’ve accomplished together into one performance, as they’re facing off against another team who’s offense has been severely limited and this game could come down to which team’s offense shows up.
On the other hand, if the FAU offense remains plagued by struggles which hurt them against UTSA and various points this season, this USF team still is capable of finding a way to win as they did last week. If the Owls offense falls flat, the Bulls have a path to avenging their homecoming loss from a year ago.
Star Watch: CJ Campbell Jr and Zuberi Mobley The position to watch this week for FAU is the running back room, as they were limited against UTSA, however in total this season CJ Campbell Jr and Zuberi Mobley have been major catalysts for this offense.
If the Owls are going to win this game, it will have to be through their success on the ground. Even if the Owls are able to get a UNT-esque performance through the air, the Owls cannot give the bulls a chance to find their footing offensively, which means they have to dominate time of possession and that starts with the run game.
USF has allowed at least 100 yards rushing on the ground in all but 2 games this season and every AAC team they have faced has been able to achieve that mark against them. If the Owls are able to get between 100 and 150, that opens a path to them finding success in this game.
The run blocking has been a big strength of the offensive line this season and against a USF front which has struggled to stop the run, this is a game where they have to dominate in the trenches.
Ultimately a lot has to happen for FAU to win in this one, but what will help is an effective run game, as that will help them win time of possession which could be a huge factor in this game.
Final Word …
FAU has been a tough team to figure out this season, as at times they’ve looked to be right there in terms of figuring out their struggles, but at other times they have looked like a team that hasn’t found their way.
This game is against another team that hasn’t met expectations yet this season, however for both squads this is an opportunity to change that. This game is a budding rivalry matchup, which FAU handled easily on the road last season, and USF is going to come fired up ready to change the narrative around this matchup.
FAU needs to match the energy which USF will bring and find a way to shut down a Bulls offense which has struggled at times this season and offensively dominate the trenches and win time of possession.
With a flourishing run game, the Owls will need to find ways to execute through the air, picking up manageable situations to help the pass game gain momentum as time goes on.
However, USF will be coming into this game looking for a win and with the way the FAU offense has struggled at times this season, there are no givens as to what form of the unit we will get. If it’s one that’s plagued with inconsistencies, that opens up a path for USF to get their high-powered offense more time on the field and find their rhythm, which is how they can ultimately get a road victory.
There is a path for FAU to find success and win in this one, but ultimately the Owls have to execute, and only they themselves know if that’s in the cards in this one.
Key Stats Comparison
USF Notes
USF came into this matchup off their first win during AAC play as they came back from down multiple scores against a struggling UAB squad to win 35-25.
For the Bulls, their season took a bit of a sour turn when Byrum Brown came down with a leg injury against Tulane nearly a month ago. Bryce Archie has been unable to match Brown’s versatility in this offense as the pass game has been there at times, however Brown’s ability to extend plays with his legs which makes this up-tempo offense dangerous has not been there.
Their defense has been the unfortunate benefactor of their offense’s struggles, as we previously mentioned due to the tempo of their offense, when it stalls it can result in a tired defense.
USF was able to find success against UAB, and that was in part due to their success on the ground as they rushed for 154 yards as a team, their best performance since week 3 of the season. USF dominated 2 out of their first 3 opponents of the season, while also keeping it close against Alabama, and in those games they dominated the trenches, going for over 200 yards in wins against BCU and Southern Miss, and the loss to Alabama.
In this one, USF will need to find a way to be successful on the ground, mixing in all 3 of Kelly Joiner, Nay’Quan Wright and Ta’Ron Keith. If USF is able to win the trench battle, that will take pressure off of Archie, help the offense stay on schedule, and keep the defense off of the field.
Archie will need to play clean football in this one, however if he is able to do that while also getting a solid rushing performance, that will help open up a pass game where he still has solid weapons in Atkins and Yaseen.
Defensively, last week USF struggled against the pass, something that has been a theme recently for the Bulls, outside of the Memphis Game where they were able to slow down Henigan. This week they face off against an FAU team which has been inconsistent through the air, so it will provide an opportunity for them to find their footing, however they will be matched up with an FAU team looking to do the same.
The key for the USF defense will be shutting down the FAU run game, as if they’re able to do that it will force the Owls to be one dimensional and the pass game hasn’t been the dimension they’ve wanted to rely on.
Ultimately, this game will come down to the run game on both sides, as if USF is unable to execute offensively and the Owls are able to run the ball, that opens a path for FAU to dominate time of possession which can ultimately lead to a win. However if USF is able to dominate the trenches, limiting the FAU run game and finding holes with their backs, that can lead to a USF victory as the Bulls could potentially find rhythm on offense and stymie the Owls defensively.
Star Watch: USF RB Room
Similar to FAU, the players to watch for in this one are the running backs for USF. It has been a near Tri-headed attack all season for the bulls, as Kelly Joiner has led the way with 364 yards and 6 scores, while Nay’Quan Wright has chipped in 262 yards and 2 scores, and Ta’Ron Keith has contributed 161 yards and 4 scores.
In this one if all 3 are able to find success on the ground that will open up an offense which has struggled to find its footing without Byrum Brown at the helm.
Like FAU, the run succeeding isn’t the only thing that will need to happen for the Bulls to get a victory, however it is a big factor which will help a pass game that has struggled and will keep their defense off of the field, which at times this year has been gassed due to the struggles of their offense.
Final Word
Ultimately, this game is a battle between 2 teams that have failed to reach their full potential this season and the winner of this game still may not make a Bowl game, however the winner will have something to hang their hat on, especially in the Florida recruiting department.
If USF is able to run the ball effectively, that will give a chance for Bryce Archie to find his rhythm and run this offense in a somewhat similar fashion to Byrum Brown, although still dialed back.
However, if the run game struggles and Archie is unable to elevate his game in this one, that could lead to major struggles for a USF team which is dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball and can’t afford offensive ineptitude.
Defensively, USF will need to bottle up the Owls run game and if they’re able to do that, put pressure on Cam Fancher. With pressure however, it is also important that they contain him from scrambling and force him into potential takeaways and incompletions.
This game is going to come down to which team is able to execute in spite of struggles coming into the game. Both FAU and USF have struggled in different departments this season, however whichever side is able to move past those struggles and play consistently on both sides of the ball will have the best chance of winning in this one.