By Joe Quillen
Fair Grounds Race 13 (Rachel Alexandra Stakes) & Race 14 (Risen Star)
Happy Saturday and I’m going to go with a little bit of a curve ball here with today’s Quills Picks Winners. With rain and snow in the forecast for the mid-Atlantic region, I am going to divert from Laurel Park which was the Daily Racing Form’s Race of the Day and give you two races from the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, where they have 14-race card as they will have their first 50 point races on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.
Race 13 – Rachel Alexandra (Grade 2)
We will look at the Rachel Alexandra where three-year-old fillies will go a mile and a sixteenth, followed by the Risen Star, going a mile and an eighth. The weather is drizzly when I started to write this article, and if you are playing the whole card, you might have some races off the turf. But these two races are on the main dirt track, and with the winds that is going to occur on Saturday, the track may dry out some, so keep an eye on your screens for track conditions.
The Rachel Alexandra is the first race that I will look at here, and seven fillies will be going postward with a post time of approximately 6:48 pm Eastern. It looks like with this race, your guess is as good as mine with who will be on the lead here for this Kentucky Oaks prep race.
The 5 Alpine Princess (7/2 ML) went for the lead on a speed favoring main track in the Untapable in December but had not gone for the lead previously. The 6 V V’s Dream (5/2 ML favorite) finished third back at Churchill in October on a sloppy track. Did she have trouble with the slop last time out? Did something else go wrong? If you believe it was the slop, keep an eye out for the track conditions when the 13th race rolls around.
The 4 Intricate (3/1 ML) won in November at Churchill and then went on a three month layoff before reappearing today. She won rather easily at this distance twice and could be the post time favorite. She won’t be far off the lead or could be on the lead if the 5 doesn’t go for the front.
The 7 West Omaha (9/2 ML) was the biggest beneficiary of Alpine Princess skipping the Silverbulletday last month, and she shouldn’t be far off the lead as well. She will be ready to pounce as they reach the long stretch at the Fair Grounds.
I think West Omaha will repeat here as she will be positioned to pounce and win this race. I’ll call this 7-4-5-6 and my play is $20 to win on the 7.
Race 14 – Risen Star (Grade 2)
The finale of the day is the Risen Star, and they are going nine furlongs (a mile and an eighth). The favorite here is the 11 Track Phantom (7/2 ML) and he won the first two legs of the Louisiana road to the Kentucky Derby in gate to wire fashion in the Gun Runner in December, and last month in the Lecomte. There is a possibility that he may have some challengers early on today.
The 12 Bee Dancer (20/1 ML) is right next to the lukewarm morning line favorite. This horse has to find three more furlongs after winning their maiden race going six furlongs. I think with that race last month, Bee Dancer might be going right for the lead.
The 9 Cardinale (12/1 ML) is the potential other “Todd Pletcher” horse here as this colt ships from Gulfstream for this race. He’s already run around two turns and was outfinished by Change of Command who showed little at Tampa Bay Downs last weekend.
The reason why I said that the 9 is the potential “other Pletcher horse” is because the 5 Moonlight (12/1 ML) is cross entered for the third race at Fair Grounds. I haven’t seen which direction this horse will go here.
There are a ton of horses here that could be flying at the end if they can get the mile and an eighth here. The 7 Hall of Fame (6/1 ML) destroyed a maiden field last month and could be first to pounce. Catching Freedom (#8, 5/1 ML) won on a track at Oaklawn that favored closers in the Smarty Jones on New Year’s Day. The 3 Honor Marie (6/1 ML) closed to win the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club in November at Churchill.
In the end, I want a horse that has been tested at nine furlongs. The 4 Sierra Leone has been tested in the Remsen in early December at Aqueduct. If the 11 gets challenged at the beginning of the race, like I think he will, things will set up for all the closers here. With that, I’ll go with the experience of going a mile and an eighth with the 4, which is my play here. I’ll go $20 to win on the 4 Sierra Leone and I’ll call this race 4-11-7-8 in the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds.
I’ll also have a daily double for today’s QPW. If both horses run, I’ll go in the 13th race with the 7 with the 4 for $10. So I will have $50 in play on Saturday at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
Good luck everyone, and I will see you tomorrow with a track that we have not visited since we started the QPW.
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