UFC 308: Preview, Odds & Trends

The UFC is heading back to the Middle East for UFC 308 on Saturday, with a card featuring a featherweight title fight between champion Ilia Topuria and former champ Max Holloway.

Fight Island is the site for the event, specifically the Etihad Arena on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi. It will be the second UFC event held at the Etihad Arena this year and the eighth since it opened in 2021 with UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar.

For Topuria, it will be the second main event fight. The first was against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298 in February; he won the featherweight title belt with a second-round knockout. UFC 308 will be his first fight since winning the belt.

While Topuria (15-0 MMA) is a relative newcomer to the UFC, with seven fights to his name since 2020, Holloway (26-7 MMA) is a longtime veteran of the promotion, having made his debut at UFC 143 in 2012 vs. Dustin Poirier. He is the current UFC “BMF” champion.

Holloway is the No. 2 contender in the featherweight rankings and No. 11 in the men’s pound-for-pound. Topuria is No. 4 in the pound-for-pound rankings.

Topuria (-238) is seeing more support from bettors at DraftKings, but not by much, with 52 percent of moneyline tickets on the defending champ. Holloway (+195) has drawn 47 percent of the handle.

Prelims for UFC 308 are scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday on ESPN+, with the main card to follow at 2 p.m. ET.

OTHER MAIN CARD FIGHTS

Robert Whittaker (27-7) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (13-0)

The co-main event is a middleweight fight between former champion Whittaker and Chimaev, who has yet to be defeated in a UFC fight. They were supposed to be the main event for UFC on ABC 6 in June, but Chimaev had to withdraw due to an illness.

Whittaker went on to knock out Ikram Aliskerov in the first round.

Chimaev opened as a -200 favorite over Whittaker (+200), but with the public getting behind Chimaev, the line has shifted to -230 and +190. DraftKings has seen 64 percent of moneyline tickets on the undefeated Chimaev; 39 percent of the handle has come in on Whittaker.

Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (14-4)

In a fight with potential title-shot implications, No. 1-ranked light heavyweight contender Ankalaev takes on Rakic, the No. 5 contender in the light heavyweight rankings. Ankalaev got his UFC career off on the wrong foot with a loss to Paul Craig in 2018, but he rebounded with nine consecutive wins — the second-longest winning streak in light heavyweight history (behind Jon Jones).

Ankalaev (-360) subsequently had a draw, a no-contest and a win over Johnny Walker in January, giving him the second-longest unbeaten streak in light heavyweight history.

Rakic (+285) has been fighting in the UFC since 2017, accumulating a 6-3 record. He will enter this bout on a two-fight losing streak. His last win was a unanimous decision over Thiago Santos at UFC 259 in 2021. That could explain why DraftKings has seen 71 percent of the moneyline handle and 88 percent of tickets on Ankalaev.

Lerone Murphy (14-0-1) vs. Dan Ige (18-8)

Murphy’s first UFC fight was at UFC 242 in 2019, when he drew with Zubaira Tukhugov. He has had six fights since then, all wins, with his last a unanimous decision over Edson Barboza in the main event of UFC Fight Night 241: Barboza vs. Murphy in May.

Ige has been more active but not nearly as successful. Since winning 14 of his first 16 MMA bouts, Ige has gone 4-6, with a loss by unanimous decision in his last fight to Diego Lopes as part of the UFC 303 card in June.

Despite Murphy’s track record compared to Ige’s, 55 percent of the money on this featherweight bout at DraftKings (moneyline) is on Ige (+215). However, 66 percent of the tickets are on Murphy (-265).

Shara Magomedov (14-0) vs. Armen Petrosyan (9-3)

The main card gets underway with a fight between two middleweight contenders, Magomedov and Petrosyan. It will be just the fourth UFC fight for Magomedov (3-0). He made his UFC debut at UFC 294 last October with a unanimous decision over Bruno Silva. This will be his third fight in 2024, all coming in the past four months.

Petrosyan earned his way into the UFC with a first-round knockout of Kaloyan Konev in Dana White’s Contender Series on Oct. 19, 2021. He has had five fights since then (3-2), the latest a loss via submission to Rodolfo Vieira at UFC Fight Night 236 in February.

Magomedov opened as the favorite at -160 to +140 for Petrosyan. Despite overwhelming public support for Magomedov (87 percent of moneyline tickets and 75 percent of handle), the line has not moved much, with Magomedov at -170 and Petrosyan at +142.

–Field Level Media