The Cleveland Guardians had a remarkable season in 2024. A team that battled injuries within their starting rotation put together an elite bullpen and an incredible batting order that elevated their game when they needed it most.
In one of the most competitive seasons for the American League Central in recent memory, the Guardians were in control nearly the entire season and will undoubtedly want to be in that same position next season. Here’s what’s next for them in the near future for the 2025 season.
Shane Bieber Free Agency
The 2020 American League Cy Young while recently undergoing Tommy John surgery is heading into free agency after the 2024 season. With the likelihood that he’d be out for half of the 2025 season, a deal between the two could be more likely than anywhere else. He looked great to start the 2024 season and is definitely a piece the Guardians need for the starting rotation.
Steven Kwan’s Arbitration
While Kwan doesn’t become a free agent until 2028, he’s arbitration eligible going into 2025. This should be Cleveland’s top priority this offseason as Kwan is an elite outfielder and hitter. In his 2024 All Star campaign, Kwan hit for a slashline of .292/.368/.425 with an OPS+ well above league average at 126 (league average OPS+: 100).
Kwan hit more home runs this season than in his previous first two seasons combined, and walked more times than he struck out. He’s pivotal to the success of this ball club and an agreement between the two should come quick.
Josh Naylor Arbitration
Naylor coming off of his 2024 All Star campaign will look to be another key contributor to this Guardians lineup. Naylor slugged 31 home runs in 2024 with an OPS+ above league average at 118. The Guardians will need to come to an agreement but his future with the club may be in question as Kyle Manzardo is looking to break in as the long term first baseman.
If he can manage to find the barrel more in 2025 he could be one of the most dangerous left handed hitters in baseball. With a 16.6% strikeout rate, a Josh Naylor that ranks in the upper percentiles for hard hit numbers would be massive for Cleveland.
Lane Thomas Arbitration
With the electric postseason that Lane Thomas delivered Cleveland, they’ll be sure to come to an agreement fast. Coming to the team in the second half, Thomas didn’t necessarily excel in his 53 regular season games, but he was solid with the Nationals in the first half and certainly is a fan favorite in Cleveland.
Potential 2025 Lineup (per FanGraphs)
- Steven Kwan – LF
- Kyle Manzardo – DH
- Jose Ramirez – 3B
- Josh Naylor – 1B
- Lane Thomas – CF
- Will Brennan – RF
- Andres Gimenez –Â 2B
- Bo Naylor – C
- Brayan Rocchio – SS
Projected Bench
- David Fry – UTL
- Gabriel Arias – INF/OF
- Daniel Schneeman – INF/OF
- Jhonkensy Noel – OF/1B
Bright Spots: Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, David Fry, Jhonkensy Noel
Kwan’s skill set and value to the team is already known, but the most valuable player to this team is far and away switch hitting shortstop Jose Ramirez. The six-time All Star hit 39 home runs and doubles while stealing 41 bases, missing the exclusive 40/40/40 club by the slimmest of margins. He’ll be hungry to break into this milestone and help get the Guardians back to the World Series.
Two bench pieces that should be looking to make big leaps forward in 2025 are David Fry and Jhonkensy Noel. Fry recorded an .804 OPS en route to his first All Star appearance, but his most valuable asset is his defense.
Fry can play the corner infield and outfield as well as play behind the plate. He offers slightly above average framing and pop time as well at the catching position, with an average pop time of 1.99 seconds.
Jhonkensy Noel stepped up big time this postseason and offers a powerful right handed bat off the bench. With his rookie status still intact through 2024, the Guardians will surely not rush his development, and let him continue to form into Cleveland’s next big home run threat.
Question Marks: Brayan Rocchio & Bo Naylor
Rocchio stepped up big time for the Guardians in the postseason, and was one of their most productive hitters. However, in the regular season he was well below league average recording a .206 batting average. Hopefully he can carry his success from the postseason into the 2025 regular season to cement himself into this Guardians infield.
Josh Naylor’s younger brother Bo is another question mark of this Cleveland lineup heading into 2025. The 24-year old was a well below league average hitter, posting a .201 batting average this season alongside a .614 OPS.
What keeps Naylor in the lineup however is his defense behind the plate. Naylor ranked in the 89th percentile for framing among all qualified catchers, making him well above league average at the metric. His bat needs to take a jump however, or his future with the club may not be a very long term one.
Projected Starting Rotation (per FanGraphs)
- Tanner Bibee RHP
- Ben Lively RHPÂ
- Gavin Williams RHP
- Joey Cantillo LHPÂ
- Triston McKenzie RHPÂ
Given they re-sign Shane Bieber this rotation does look a lot better midway through the 2025 season, but they’re still some question marks. The first comes with their back end of the rotation right hander Triston McKenzie.
After battling injuries, McKenzie struggled with a 5.11 ERA in 16 starts with the big league club in 2024. The Guardians decided to option him to AAA Columbus where McKenzie could work on his mechanics and get himself set for 2025. In 13 appearances and 10 starts at the AAA level, McKenzie recorded a 5.23 ERA with a 9.5 K/9 rate.
Gavin Williams and Joey Cantillo should take steps forward in the 2025 season. The two homegrown prospects both had below average seasons in 2024, but have the tools to improve within the Cleveland rotation. Williams ranks high in fastball velocity among all qualified pitchers, and Cantillo displayed solid swing-and-miss numbers from the left side in his short 2024 stint.
Both Bibee and Lively had solid seasons for Cleveland, and should be the anchors of this rotation to start out the 2025 season.
Projected Bullpen (per FanGraphs)
LR – Pedro Avila
MID – Andrew Walters
MID – Erik Sabrowski
MID – Eli Morgan
SU – Hunter Gaddis
SU – Cade Smith
CP – Emmanuel Clase
This Cleveland bullpen was the best bullpen in 2024. They led the majors in ERA and WHIP, and were second among all bullpens in saves, hits allowed, and home runs given up. They have elite arms in Cade Smith and Emmanuel Clase, who should have incredible 2025 seasons.
Inside the Farm
The Guardians farm system has a wide range of prospects that could look to break the big league club in 2025, here are a few of them.
Travis Bazzana 2B – Lake County (High-A)
The number one overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft could very well make his case for a big league call up at some point in 2025. One of the most polished hitters in MLB Pipeline’s Top 100, Bazzana totaled a .765 OPS in his first professional stint.
Bazzana should improve greatly in his first full professional season, and if the production is there he could see himself potentially make a case for a spot on the big league roster sometime later in the season. If the Guardians want infield depth come September or into the postseason, Bazzana could be that guy.
Chase DeLauter OF – Columbus (AAA)
Cleveland’s first round draft pick in 2022 ended his season off on a high note in Columbus at the AAA level. In six games with the Clippers, DeLauter hit for a slashline of .304/.407/.739 with a 1.146 OPS. If he continues that kind of production into 2025, he’s expected to see time at the major league level. He’ll most likely be interchanged with Will Brennan out in right field.
Alaska Abney RHP – Akron (AA)
A more outside of the box pick for prospects to keep an eye on in this farm is 24-year old Alaska Abney. The 15th round pick of the 2021 MLB Draft had a solid 2024, recording a 2.33 ERA. He’s created some buzz around his name in the Arizona Fall League recently, recording an 18.0 K/9 rate in three appearances. Abney could be another addition to this already stacked Cleveland bullpen if he continues to improve in 2025.
Additional Free Agent Signings
If the Guardians and Shane Bieber don’t come to a deal, the starting rotation would be an area they should look to improve this offseason. However, Cleveland is not a team that usually makes a big splash in free agency, and deals with guys that already were featured in the rotation like Matthew Boyd and Alex Cobb are far cheaper.
Potential Free Agent Targets & Biggest Needs
Starting Pitchers
Yusei Kikuchi – LHP
Sean Manaea – LHP
Michael Wacha – RHP
Colin Rea – RHP
Robbie Ray – LHP
Outfielders
Anthony Santander – RF
Teoscar Hernandez – LF/RF
Harrison Bader – CF
Tommy Pham – LF
Tyler O’Neil – LF
Catcher
Kyle Higashioka
Elias Diaz
Gary Sanchez
Whether it’s a series of small moves or a big splash signing, the Guardians have to find a way to get over the hump and once again take the American League pennant. With some additional help from developing young talent and prospects, this organization has to feel confident about getting back to where they were this season.