Matchup: FAU (2-3, 0-1 AAC) vs North Texas (4-1, 1-0 AAC)
When: Saturday, October 12th, 7:00 PM
Where: FAU Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Radio: FoxSports 640
Opening Line: UNT -6
Weather Forecast: Here
The Series: The Owls lead 8-6, but have lost the last two meetings
Owl Notes
FAU comes into week 7 with fresh legs off the bye, but coming into town is a tough AAC opponent in North Texas, who will give the Owls one of their biggest tests through the air so far this season.
Following the week 5 shellacking of FCS Wagner, FAU hopes that a page has been turned on the struggles that plagued them in the early parts of the season.
Against Wagner, the FAU offense looked as crisp as it did all season, although there were a few bumps in the road during the second quarter that will need to be cleaned up prior to this matchup with North Texas.
It’s still unknown who is going to take the reins at QB, but both Cam Fancher and Kasen Weisman had bright spots while also each making some mistakes. Fancher started the game and led the team to their first, first drive of the season that didn’t result in a 3 and out, leading 3 total scoring drives and exiting the game up 17-0, although it could have been 24-0 but he telegraphed an INT in the end zone.
Weisman battled past 2 first half turnovers to lead 4 scoring drives in the second half, giving the Owls a sense of confidence in the redshirt freshman should they need to lean on him against North Texas.
A big part of both Fancher and Weisman’s ability to put out an improved pass game in week 5, was Omari Hayes being featured in a big role in the offense, as he hauled in 137 yards through the air which was a season high. Overall the Owls were able to feature their WRs more consistently, as between Fancher and Weisman they connected with 6 different receivers, with Weisman being able to stretch the field at the highest rate the Owls have seen all season with an average depth of target of 9.6.
The offensive line was also a major bright spot against Wagner, as although it was expected they dominate the trenches against an FCS opponent, it was a much needed return to form following the UConn matchup in which the offensive line was struggled. It was an all around solid performance from the o-line, as they recorded their highest PFF run blocking grade of the season and their 3rd pass blocking team grade of 79+.
The run game also continues to be a focal point of this FAU offense, as against Wagner both CJ Campbell and Zuberi Mobley (Pictured Below via Angelina LaBelle) were able to get whatever they wanted in the trenches and the Owls finished with 315 yards rushing as a team.
With the uncertainty that lies at QB, a healthy dose of Mobley and Campbell may be in order, both of whom averaged 7.5+ yards per carry against Wagner.
The defense bounced back in a resounding way against Wagner, holding the Seahawks to 21 yards rushing on 26 attempts, also pressuring Wagner 16 times although it only resulted in one sack. Chris Jones was a consistent force in the backfield, and he had 4 tackles on run plays for 3 yards or less, and 4 QB pressures on the day.
The pass coverage is going to be tested more than it has all season in this one, and against Wagner they improved back to their usual selves following a few chunk plays allowed against UConn. DaeDae Hill is back healthy following an ankle injury, and he along with Buggs Brown on the outside and Wendol Philord in the slot have combined to be a lockdown trio and Wagner was only 3/14 when targeting that trio.
FAU headed into the bye firing on all cylinders, however uncertainties still remain at the QB position and the Owls have been unable to translate success from game to game which North Texas will provide another opportunity to do exactly that.
Star Watch: WR Omari Hayes
Omari Hayes was featured in a big role against Wagner, leading the Owls in yards and catches for the first time since week 2 and showing an improved ability to stretch the field.
No matter who is at QB against North Texas, they will need to get in rhythm with Hayes in similar fashion to how they were able to against Wagner with the big play pass on the first drive of the day.
FAU isn’t going to transform into an air-raid offense, however what has been lacking in the offense is a consistent go-to target in big play situations and with Hayes re-establishing himself as the top WR in the offense against Wagner, his number needs to be called as early as possible against UNT.
Whether it’s over the top or through the short game the Owls have to get the ball to Hayes, as it will allow other targets to open up as the game develops, while also giving whoever gets the nod at QB a trusty target to go to.
Hayes fell behind the 8 ball after leading the Owls in yards and catches after week 2, still holding that start overall due to the lack of production as a whole, but against FIU and UConn Hayes was a non-factor and it hurt the offense. The offense needs a go-to guy and they’ve got a budding star in Hayes, it’s time for his role in the offense to become a staple.
Final Word
This game is going to be a true test of whether FAU has turned the corner or not, as UNT comes into this matchup with a top tier passing offense and a defense that has been making strides of improvement.
Whether Cam Fancher or Kasen Weisman gets the nod at QB, FAU has to find a way to jolt the pass game early and get an effective flow between their pass and run game.
The short pass game is effective at points, but against Wagner the Owls were stretching the field at an average depth of target of 9.6 when Weisman was under center and that is the type of passing offense the Owls will need to compete against North Texas.
The key to the Owls offense however will be their ability to run it consistently, getting both Mobley and Campbell involved and in space to make plays. If they’re able to get their backs going alongside a continually improving pass game, that will show that this offense has turned a corner from the early season struggles and that they are ready to compete in AAC play.
Defensively, it’s gonna be tough slowing down a UNT offense which has featured a dynamic passing offense led by Chandler Morris and dynamic receivers DT Sheffield and Damon Ward.
Buggs Brown and Daedae Hill will provide equal talent in coverage, which will make for some fun matchups on the outside, but they will need to bring their best matching up against 2 of the top WRs in the AAC.
If the Owls are able to slow down the Mean Green pass game that will already be accomplishing a lot, however UNT has 3 very capable running backs in Damashja Harris, Seth Porter, and Makenzie McGill. It will be equally important for the run defense to continue to build of their strong performance against Wagner, and shut down the UNT run game, while looking to slow down the pass.
This one will be a battle, but if FAU’s defense is able to slow down Morris and Co, while the offense continues its improvement from week 5, there is a recipe for the Owls to find success at home in week 7.
Key Stats Comparison
UNT Notes
North Texas comes into this game sitting at 4-1, fresh off their bye and last played Tulsa in week 5 a game in which they dominated 52-20, once again getting a huge game off the arm of Chandler Morris as he completed 22 of 34 passes for 439 yards and 5 TDs with no turnovers.
That was his second 400 yard passing performance of the season and he has passed for at least 300 yards in 4 out of 5 UNT games this season. He’s also been extremely efficient, completing 65% of his throws and averaging 8.7 yards per completion.
Morris has been helped by having 2 dynamic receivers in DT Sheffield and Damon Ward Jr, both of whom can stretch the field and make game changing plays on the outside. Sheffield has hauled in 23 receptions for 317 yards and 5 TDs while Ward Jr had a huge week one, recording 12 receptions for 230 yards and 2 TDs, however he suffered an undisclosed injury in week 3 and it has hurt his production since then, only bringing in 4 catches for 58 yards.
Following a bye week, he should be fully healthy and combined with Sheffield will bring a dynamic force that will create some battles between DaeDae Hill and Buggs Brown against them.
At running back, Damashja Harris, Seth Porter, Makenzie McGill have combined to all make an impact, each averaging over 6 yards per carry and 100 yards on the season, with McGill leading the way with 4 TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, North Texas has only allowed more than 20 points twice this season, one of those games against known defense destroyer Texas Tech.
Rushing defense could be a point of weakness in this one, as they’ve allowed totals of 150 vs USA , 252 against Texas Tech, and 229 against Tulsa, finding ways to win in two of those matchups, but getting gashed in the trenches regardless.
Evan Jackson and Jayden Hill have combined to be a force in the UNT secondary alongside Lockdown Corner Ridge Texada, both being the top 2 tacklers, with Jackson recording 32 tackles, 2 of the 4 team INTs on the year, and also having 2 PBUs, while Hill is the overall leading tackler with 35, also having a pair of PBUs on the year.
In terms of pass rush, UNT has been solid, recording 8 sacks on the season, half coming from Roderick Brown and Breylon Charles.
Overall this is a very sound Mean Green squad, having a typical Texas Style air it out style offense with dangerous weapons at wideout, while having more than capable backs to grind out yardage if needed.
Defense has been up and down, but they have gotten the job done with the help of their offense, and clutch plays from their secondary when called upon.
The most exploitable part of UNT will be their run defense, which FAU will need to capitalize upon to control the pace to limit the Mean Green’s big play ability and overall time of possession.
Star Watch: WR Damon Ward Jr.
Damon Ward Jr comes into this game looking to get back to form following an undisclosed injury in week 3. That is bad news for an Owls defense who will face a healthy Ward for the first time since week 1 where he recorded over 200 yards 10+ catches and 2 TDs.
An explosive receiver on the outside, Ward has an ability to do it all as a pass catcher for the Mean Green with a solid contested catch ability and game changing speed in space.
FAU has very capable outside corners in Buggs Brown and DaeDae Hill, however the Owls will also have to keep an eye on DT Sheffield who has taken over the #1 role in the offense while Ward dealt with injury.
With 2 top of the line receivers to defend and a strong QB to get them the ball, FAU will be very busy on Saturday afternoon and will have to do their best to slow down the UNT offense, hopefully forcing Morris into some mistakes.
If Ward is fully healthy in this matchup, he will get his catches and big plays, but the Owls can’t let him change the game entirely like he was able to do in week 1, if they can slow him down that will go a long way in helping FAU protect their home field.
Final Word
This is going to be a battle through and through, as UNT comes into this matchup looking to assert themselves atop the conference following a big start to the season, while FAU looks to turn a corner after a slow start to the year and make a statement against an AAC foe.
UNT will be looking to air it out early and often, giving Roc Bellantoni and the Owls defense one of their biggest tests of the season. It will be an extremely difficult task to lock up the Mean Green offense, but any way they are able to slow them down will help keep the Owls in this game and give them a chance to win.
FAU will be looking to establish the run with uncertainties at QB, which has been a bit of a struggle for the Mean Green defense this season and could potentially be a point of exploitation for the FAU offense.
The Owls will still be looking to improve on the success they found with their pass game against Wagner, but UNT has been fairly sound in coverage this season and FAU will need to be careful to not become overly reliant on the pass and look to dominate the trenches, which has led to success this season.
This game is going to come down to which side is able to institute their offense early and remain consistent throughout, something that has been easy for UNT this season, but a struggle for FAU.
If the Owls are able to start like they did against Wagner and keep that going throughout, the defense has enough talent to at least slow down the UNT offense and give the Owls a shot at winning. However, if the FAU offense sputters like it has at times this season, UNT is an offensive juggernaut which will wait for nobody, and could mean trouble for an FAU offense which has had dry spells at points.
