Kansas Speedway you have done it again! Ross Chastain held off a hungry Kyle Busch, the vet Martin Truex Jr., and a tenacious William Byron to gain his first victory of the 2024 season. To say the next-gen car has been phenomenal on 1.5-mile tracks is an understatement of how great the racing has been.
So why not turn the page from a 1.5-mile track to the largest oval on the cup schedule? Welcome to Talladega.
One can easily forget about the implications this weekend has with how exciting a track ‘Dega can be but remember this is the second of three races in the Round of 12.
Round of 12 Standings:
- William Byron (24) +34
- Ryan Blaney (12) +28
- Christopher Bell (20) +28
- Kyle Larson (5) +18
- Denny Hamlin (11) +11
- Alex Bowman (48) +8
- Chase Elliott (9) +4
- Joey Logano (22) +4
- Tyler Reddick (45) -4
- Daniel Suárez (99) -14
- Chase Briscoe (14) -25
- Austin Cindric (2) -29
Talladega
The best thing to do with the standings heading into this weekend: throw them out. Nobody has a clue about who or how the race will be won. All one does know is that somebody above the cutoff line will fall below the cutoff line, most likely no fault of their own.
JGR
The Spring race at Talladega was rough for Joe Gibbs racing as Bell and Hamlin finished 37th and 38th respectively, and their highest placing driver was Truex Jr. in 11th.
Hamlin is known for his style of racing or lack thereof at Superspeedway style tracks. For instance, Hamlin sat around the back of the field for most of the day in the Atlanta race. His plan cost him many points as he finished in 24th. This led to a stressful two weeks, but luckily for the 11 camp, he was able to find a way into the Round of 12
The 20 is averaging a 7.5 finishing spot so far in the playoffs. That is coming from a short track, road course, Atlanta (One of a Kind), and a 1.5-mile oval. Talk about consistency. Do not forget, Bell seemed to have Kansas under wraps with his 122 laps led. Even with damage he drove the Dewalt Tools Toyota to a seventh-place finish.
Bell and Hamlin are both above the cutline and if they have a weekend at Talladega like the Spring race, the season could turn south for the two in a hurry.
23XI
Reddick, the regular season champion, has found himself in a tough spot coming into this weekend. Reddick is four points below the cutline. That is what a 19.5 average playoff finish will do to a team, but luckily for the 45; they have a win at Talladega this season. While the win was great for Reddick, he has failed to finish top 15 in Superspeedway races in seven of the nine last races.
HMS
NASCAR’s most popular driver has a great start for the playoffs. Elliott is averaging a 9.5 finish in the first four races. He is only four points above the cutline. The good news for Chase is his ‘Dega resume has a victory on it. In the next-gen Elliott has earned three top tens and a victory at either Talladega or Daytona. Elliott has also found a way to finish at ‘Dega as he has seen the checkered flag at every Talladega race since the next gen has been run.
The playoffs have gone as well as one could hope for Bowman. The Showman scored the most points of any driver in the Round of 16. Bowman is 8 only points ahead of the cutline, so if he wants to hold on, he should aim for the performance he had in the Spring, which was fifth.
If anybody said Larson was in fourth at this time a month ago, nobody would be shocked. The problem is how is Larson in fourth? Since the playoffs have started, Larson’s average finish has been 19th; that is including a victory at Bristol. Thankfully for Larson, the playoff points earned during the regular season has kept the 5 camp alive. This weekend does not get any easier for Yung Money as he has failed to earn a top ten at a Superspeedway since the Spring Talladega race of 2022.
The Daytona 500 champion has made his mark in the playoffs. Byron is now at the top of the charts after a second-place finish in Kansas. Also, for the 24, Talladega has treated him fairly. Just like his HMS teammate Elliott, Byron has finished every race run at ‘Dega since 2022. The driver is averaging a seventh-place finish at ‘Dega during that time as well. Would not be a bad idea to place money on a 24 team top ten.
Hendrick Motorsports has had a fun playoffs so far, but watch out for a favorite to have a bad weekend. Just because history says one thing, does not mean it will happen again.
Penske
Cindric had two top-tens in the Round of 16 and was able to make it into the round of 12 easily. The problem for him was his wreck at Kansas that led to a 34th place finish. Last year’s Fall race at Talladega was a fifth-place finish for the young driver. Do not count him out, but it will take a lot for the 2 to be seen in the Round of 8. We will see what Brian Wilson and the 2 team comes up with to stop the sinking ship.
Logano is only four points above the cutoff line. While Talladega has not been the best place for finishes for him, he has led at least one lap in every next-gen race at ‘Dega except once. The 22 camp, like everyone else this weekend, will need luck on their side to get Logano a good finish. The driver of the 22’s best finish at the track is 19th since 2022.
Ryan Blaney has helped produce some of the wildest finishes at ‘Dega, and he was apart of the finish last Fall here with his victory that propelled him into top form for the 2023 championship. The 12’s resume looks great heading into this weekend with three top two finishes at ‘Dega since 2022, and only has one finish outside of the top eleven since then as well. Do not be shocked to see the reigning champion lock himself into the Round of 8 with a victory on Sunday.
Trackhouse
Suárez has been a formidable driver on Superspeedways so far this season. HIs victory in Atlanta has pushed the 99 driver into this spot, but how will this weekend help him? Suárez is 14 points below the cutline so for him this weekend it all depends on getting stage points, and managing to finish the race. Luckily for Suárez he had a string of top-tens from Oct. 2022 – Oct. 2023 so he knows how to get the job done.
SHR
A team that is closing shop after this season has one final chance at a championship. Briscoe is currently 25 points below the cutline and won his way into the playoffs in the final regular season race of the year. For the 14, a ‘Dega top ten would be enormous to cut gap on the bubble. Briscoe has done a great job since ’22 at Talladega. He is averaging a top ten finish. He only has four laps led under his belt during that time, but him getting a great finish is way more important than forcing the narrative for a win.
Final Thoughts
If one knows anything about Superspeedway racing, they know how random these races can be. Do not expect a favorite to win but watch out for those who are consistent. There is no reason to believe the season is over for drivers below the cutoff line, but do know, when push comes to shove, if a driver has a gap, they will take it. This playoff picture can change in a heartbeat.