Today’s the day all baseball fans wait for as the long marathon of the 162 game regular season has finally concluded, and the postseason now begins. In what has undoubtedly been the most chaotic season in recent memory, this postseason should be no different. With the Wildcard round starting this afternoon, let’s take a look at one straight bet, and one player prop bet for each series.
Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez
Tigers Moneyline & Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts
This matchup between one of the most solid teams in the American League and the hottest team in baseball right now should make for a great series, and an even better Postseason opener.
For the first pick of this game, we’re sticking with the hot team in Detroit at plus odds to put the Astros backs against the wall in game one. While the Astros have their ace on the mound in Framber Valdez this afternoon, it would feel wrong to not tail the future 2024 American League Cy Young and Triple Crown winner in Tarik Skubal.
In what will be his postseason debut, Skubal has to show up. With how important momentum is in a Wildcard series, getting in front of a postseason juggernaut like the Astros is crucial for the Tigers to advance.
Skubal has gone over the 5.5 strikeout total in every start since August 18th, and is coming off of back to back seven strikeout outings. He’s posted solid numbers as well against the Astros, holding them to a .247 batting average and only walking four batters in 73 at bats.
Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
Cole Ragans vs. Corbin Burnes
Orioles F5 -1 Spread & Corbin Burnes Over 4.5 Strikeouts
The Baltimore Orioles look to get out to a good start in this Wildcard series by continuing their success over Cole Ragans and the Royals. The Orioles are 4-2 against the Royals this season, and with their ace Corbin Burnes on the mound should be able to get out to an early lead to cover the -1 spread in the first five innings.
In 34 at bats, Orioles hitters have a .324 batting average and an .837 OPS against Cole Ragans. Corbin Burnes in 125 at bats against Royals hitters has held the offense to a .232 batting average and a .603 OPS. Burnes’ last three starts he’s recorded seven, eight, and then nine strikeouts. With the line set at 4.5, we’ll take the Baltimore ace to deal today.
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Luis Severino vs. Freddy Peralta
Brewers -1.5 Spread & Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Singles
The Brewers finally play a meaningful game again and face a Mets team fresh off of a postseason clinching win in Monday’s doubleheader against Atlanta. With the Mets having to travel and play the day after clinching, the Brewers rested offense should be able to capitalize and cover the -1.5 spread.
The Brewers have posted great numbers against Luis Severino in 45 total at bats. The Milwaukee offense has hit for a .333 batting average against the Mets right hander with a .953 OPS.
Jackson Chourio in three at bats against Severino has recorded a single, and in his last four games has hit four singles. With Chourio’s speed and his comparably lower hard hit numbers to the rest of the league, picking a single simply over a hit gives us better value as well.
Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
TBA vs. Michael King
Padres -1.5 & Michael King Over 16.5 Outs
Similar thought process to the Mets here, Atlanta just clinched last night in the final game of Monday’s doubleheader, and then had to pack up and travel across the country to San Diego to take on the Padres tonight.
Having to go up against one of the most well rounded teams in the league the night after clinching at home might be too tough of a task. For that we’re going with the Padres to cover the spread of -1.5 at plus odds.
While Atlanta hasn’t announced who will be pitching for them yet, the Padres will give the ball to Michael King for their Postseason opener. King has had a great full season as a starting pitcher after being traded from New York, and is coming off of a great September where he posted a 1.57 ERA in four starts.