We head a bit to the south and west of Horseshoe Indianapolis and head to Kentucky Downs for today’s race as we have an overflow field of fillies and mares going a mile and 70 yards in the One Dreamer Stakes. Post time for this $500,000 stakes race is approximately 5:51 pm Eastern time.
Kentucky Downs Race 9 – One Dreamer Stakes
The lukewarm 7/2 morning line favorite is the 4 Papilio. She had all kinds of trouble in her last race at Monmouth Park. She was squeezed back at the start of the race and then had to check on the final turn. She is a filly who will close from the back of the pack.
Also in that race at Monmouth Park was the 6 Olivia Maralda (6/1 ML). Like today’s favorite, she was bumped around in that race and should run well here today. She has a history of racing over in the UK and Ireland, so she will like the hills at Kentucky Downs. If she runs like she did in May in the Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita, she will win this.
If there was ever a horse that you just toss the last race, it is definitely the 5 Sister Lou Ann (9/2 ML). Her connections kept her in the De La Rose Stakes at Saratoga which was rained off the turf and finished last in a field of four. She won off a break at Churchill in June and will be defending her title here from last year’s One Dreamer Stakes here at Kentucky Downs.
If the 13 Lute Warm (4/1 ML) draws in off the also eligible list, this filly could have first crack at taking over in the stretch. She has the versatility of winning on the front end or stalking behind leaders. Yes, she will have an outside post if she gets into the race, but that turn is a very wide turn if she cannot get all the way over and won’t lose too much ground.
Like Lute Warm, the 2 Immensitude (15/1 ML) has familiarity to European racing, albeit she raced in France before ending up in America in Bill Mott’s barn. She did not have the necessary closing kick to get by in deep stretch, but this race is the second race off of a layoff.
Joe’s pick
I admit that Kentucky Downs is one of the hardest tracks to handicap. But then again, that is probably why you can make some serious money here. If the 13 Lute Warm draws into the field today, I think she wins. But I get the feeling that she will be scratched because the main field will stay intact.
So this pick will be a conditional pick. If the 13 draws in, Lute Warm is my pick. If not, then I am going with the 6 Olivia Maralda. I will call this race 13-6-4-2-5 and whether it is the 13 if she draws in, or the 6, that horse will be my selection and will have my $20 win wager. Best of luck to everyone reading!
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