Quills Picks Winners – Wednesday 8/28 – Saratoga Race 8

We have reached the final week of the Saratoga season, and we still have a ton of great races on tap as today we will look at race 8, which is the P.G. Johnson Stakes, which is a race for two-year-old fillies going a mile and a sixteenth on the inner turf course. Post time for this juvenile filly stakes race is for approximately 5:10 pm Eastern time.

Saratoga Race 8 – P.J. Johnson Stakes

We do have two fillies to keep an eye on before we get to the field here. First, the 4 Lady Orient (9/2 morning line) is cross entered to the seventh race at Kentucky Downs on Thursday. We will see where she will potentially run when the scratches and changes are first announced.

Saratoga

Also, the 10 Fortuna Mia (5/2 ML) is entered for the main track only. If the race is taken off the turf, she might have an advantage, but I don’t have a feel if she can go a mile on the main track given that her sire Vekoma has his first set of offspring hitting the track this year.

Favored is the 2 Virgin Colada (2/1 ML) who debuted at this distance last month at Saratoga and looks to repeat that race where she lagged back at the back of the field and closed to win in her debut. A similar race will show that she can handle these longer distances at a young age.

The 3 Good Conduct (6/1 ML) is a maiden facing winners which is very common at this point of the year in two-year-old stakes races. She finished well to finish second, but I am concerned about this filly because this will be the second race in five days for her. But it also could be encouraging if she’s ready to go back to the races so quickly.

Saratoga

The 7 Totally Justified (6/1 ML) is also a maiden facing winners, but she does have some great grass breeding on the dam’s side. Her sire Justify has produced some top turf runners. He might be worth a look here today.

The 9 Reining Flowers (6/1 ML) could be close to the pace like she was two back at Horseshoe Indianapolis, or she could be further back like she was in her Saratoga debut last month. She still had an outside post like last month, but she has the experience of running from a wide post at this distance at Saratoga.

It will be interesting to see where Good Conduct is in this race. If she’s closer to the front or on the lead, she has the potential of going gate to wire here. Virgin Colada and Reining Flowers will be closing from the back, but I think Totally Justified will take advantage of the distance and her turf debut to win. Let’s call this 7-9-2-3 and my play is $20 to win on the 7. Best of luck everyone!

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