UFC Vegas 62: Preview, Odds & Trends

UFC on ESPN 62 at the Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night is headlined by a middleweight fight between former title challenger Jared Cannonier and rising Brazilian Caio Borralho.

This is the fourth consecutive main event for Cannonier (17-7-0), who is coming off a fourth-round stoppage loss to Nassourdine Imavov in June. However, he has won seven of his first 10 fights in the 185-pound class, highlighted by a win over Sean Strickland.

Borralho (16-1-0) has reeled off five consecutive wins and is now inside the top 15 middleweight contenders. The 31-year-old’s most recent triumph was a stoppage against Paul Craig.

“In my last fight, my mantra was, ‘I’m going to KO Paul Craig,’ and I did it,” Borralho told ESPN MMA this week. “In this fight, my mantra is, ‘I’m going to show that the new champion has arrived.’ That’s my mantra right now.”

Cannonier has lost consecutive fights just once in his career, and this is an important fight to retain his status among the top contenders.

He is a +220 underdog at BetMGM, where he has been backed by 59 percent of the total bets but only 31 percent of the money since opening at +145. Borralho has gone in the other direction, shifting from a -175 favorite to -275.

OTHER MAIN CARD MATCHES
ANGELA HILL (17-13-0) vs. TABATHA RICCI (10-2-0)
The co-main event is a strawweight battle. Hill, 39, is seeking her third consecutive victory after scoring a submission win over Luana Pinheiro in her most recent fight. On Saturday, she’ll join Jessica Andrade as the only women to fight 25 times in the UFC. Ricci is looking to bounce back from consecutive losses following a four-fight win streak to begin her tenure in the division.

Considered one of the closest fights on the card, Ricci has received lopsided action with 96 percent of the money backing her at +105 to beat Hill (-125).

RYAN LODER (6-1-0) vs. ROBERT VALENTIN (3-0-0)
This is the TUF 32 middleweight tournament finale. Valentin reached the finale with wins over Giannis Bachar and Paddy McCorry, and the 29-year-old Swiss is riding a five-fight win streak. Loder, a former All-American wrestler at Northern Iowa, submitted Tommy Theocharis before scoring a unanimous win over Omran Chaaban.

Already 33, this is a critical fight for Loder’s UFC ambitions. He has drawn 72 percent of the bets and 83 percent of the money as the +135 underdog, while Valentin’s odds as the favorite have shifted to -165 since opening at -175.

KAAN OFLI (11-2-1) vs. MAIRON SANTOS (12-1-0)
This is the TUF 32 featherweight tournament finale. Ofli, a 31-year-old from Australia, won eight consecutive fights before the tournament and is trying to joined Robert Whittaker as the only Aussies to win the reality TV competition.

Santos has held steady as the -185 favorite, while Ofli has been slightly more popular with the public, drawing 54 percent of the bets at +150.

NEIL MAGNY (29-11-0) vs. MICHAEL MORALES (16-0-0)
Magny, 37, beat Mike Malott in January and now faces an undefeated welterweight prospect in the 25-year-old Morales. Morales, a graduate from the Contender Series, has run his record to 16-0 and is seeking another jump up the rankings.

Morales is the biggest favorite on the card, drawing 74 percent of the money at -900 to beat Magny (+600).

EDMEN SHAHBAZYAN (13-4-0) vs. GERALD MEERSCHAERT (36-17-0)
This is the first of three middleweight fights on the main card. Shahbazyan, 26, has dropped four of his past five fights, but did knock out AJ Dobson earlier this year. Meerschaert is a decade other than his opponent and is coming off a submission win over Bryan Barberena in March.

Shahbazyan is a solid favorite, moving from -275 to -300 while receiving 60 percent of the money. However, Meerschaert has been supported by 67 percent of the total bets at +240.

–Field Level Media