Happy Saturday everyone! We have a stakes laden card on tap today at The Spa and we will look at the five stakes races on the card which thankfully are set up from races 7 to 11 on the Saturday card. All the races will be on Fox for Fox Saratoga Saturday from 3 to 6 pm Eastern time.
Saratoga Race 7 – Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes
We begin with the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational, and we have eight three-year-olds going a mile and three sixteenths on the turf course. We may have some moisture in the turf today since there was rain in the forecast overnight into this morning.
Favored is the 4 Diego Velazquez (2/1 morning line) who won two weeks ago in Ireland. I’m a bit concerned about flying all the way from Europe here to Saratoga, but he should like the going here. He might be distance limited here, but he did win a Group 3 race at Leopardstown very easily while wide throughout. The jockey/trainer connections are dangerous, but I get mixed signals here.
Looks like the favorite could have a speed duel in front of him. The 1 Izzy d’Oro (30/1 ML) and the 8 White Palomino (8/1 ML) have both consistently went for the lead in their last few races. It should set up nicely for the favorite as well as the 3 Legend of Time (7/2 ML) who stalked and missed by a length or so in the Belmont Derby last month at Aqueduct, and the 5 Deterministic who just missed in the Manila against Neat who won the QPW races on Friday.
I will go with Deterministic here. I think that he’s found a home on the turf and will fare well here today. I’ll call this 5-4-3-8 and my play is $20 to win on the 5.
Saratoga Race 8 – Test Stakes
We head to the main track as three-year-old fillies go seven furlongs on the main track in the Grade 1 Test Stakes. Favored is the 4 Ways and Means (7/5 ML). She won going a mile during the Belmont Stakes festival here at Saratoga in June. There isn’t much speed in this race, but her tactical speed can help her here.
The 5 My Mane Squeeze (5/1 ML) won her last three races that did not involve Thorpedo Anna. She looks like a one-turn filly, like how she pulled away in the Eight Belles at Churchill and three in a row at Aqueduct. She should be close to the pace as well here.
The 1 Emery (5/2 ML) draws the rail here and could be an interesting play here. She won going this distance at June at Churchill and won the Grade 3 Victory Ride at Aqueduct going half a furlong less than today at Saratoga. The 2 Denim and Pearls (7/2 ML) could be right next to Emery as well as her previous three were near the page. Toss that Eight Belles race.
I’ll take my chances with My Mane Squeeze here. I think going seven furlongs will be to her liking here today. I’ll go 5-4-2-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 5.
Saratoga Race 9 – Lure Stakes
We are on the inner turf course for the Lure, and we have a field of ten older horses going a mile and a sixteenth. This race is not graded and could be moved to the main track. If so, the main track only entry number 10 Film Star should have a huge advantage here.
If this race stays on the turf, the 9 More Than Looks is the 2/1 favorite here. He runs for the first time since last November in the Breeders’ Cup. The post should not be an issue here as he will drop back and make a huge run.
The 5 Big Everest (4/1 ML) may be lone speed here in the Lure and could be there from beginning to end. If he’s unpressured up front, he will win.
The 4 Irish Aces (5/1 ML) was closer to the front in the Arlington Stakes two back at Churchill but did have an impressive turn of foot last time out to just miss. He likes today’s distance (2 wins, 1 place, 2 shows in six tries) and has consistently been there at the end.
The 8 Smokin’ T (6/1 ML) faded in the Arlington Stakes at Churchill in June and probably needed a break. He comes back in this race today at Saratoga and could get a piece here.
I’m going to try to beat what might be lone speed here with Irish Aces here. I’ll call this 4-9-5-8 with a $20 win bet on the 4.
Saratoga Race 10 – Troy Stakes
We go from the inner to the outer turf for the Grade 2 Troy Stakes going five and a half furlongs. We have 12 entered with the 12 Disarmed (8/1 ML) entered as a main track only entrant. Gut feeling is that this race will stay on the turf so expect a scratch here.
The 6 Cogburn (4/5 ML) is the heavy favorite here after setting a track record in the Grade 1 Jaipur last time out at Saratoga on Belmont Day. He won this race last year on soft turf here and would not surprise me if he repeats that today. He could be a candidate of bouncing here but what takes me away from that is the fact that three other horses in the Jaipur field won next time out.
The 1 Mischief Magic (6/1 ML) was very wide in the Jaipur and the rail will help him here. He should be running over much less real estate as opposed to last time out at Saratoga.
The 7 Big Invasion (12/1 ML) just missed at Aqueduct after not running well in the Jaipur. He just missed in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last year, so he is capable of running well in turf sprints.
This is all about Cogburn here. Unlike last Saturday’s San Diego where I speculated about the potential of a heavy favorite off the board. I can’t see it here. 6-1-7 is my selections and $20 to win on the 6 is my play.
Saratoga Race 11 – Whitney Stakes
Finally, we have the Whitney for older horses going one lap or a mile and an eighth on the main track. The 3 National Treasure returns after winning the Met Mile impressively on Belmont Day here at Saratoga. He won on the front end last time out, which was the same thing he did to win the Preakness last year. His best races have been at or near the front, and other than the 10 Skippylongstocking (8/1 ML), I wonder who else will go for the lead here.
The 11 Arthur’s Ride (8/1 ML) may be that candidate here today as we went gate to wire going 10 furlongs in an optional claimer at Saratoga. If he is on the lead with the favorite, does he get cooked or both? Or do we see the typical Bob Baffert horse in National Treasure making you think he’s done and he draws off in the stretch?
The 5 First Mission (9/2 ML) would benefit from a potential speed duel. I do not think he goes for the lead like he did in the Stephen Foster at Churchill. He would be better suited to stalk and hope the favorite gets tired on the front end. But then again, I did (kinda) predict Arabian Knight not being there in a roundabout way.
The 9 Bright Future (5/1 ML) won the Salvator Mile at Monmouth in his 2024 debut and has won at Saratoga going longer in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last August. He might be right behind the leaders as well here so if that speed duel develops, it will be between the 5 and the 9 here at the end.
I’m going to try to beat National Treasure here. Let’s go 5-9-3-10 with a $20 win play on the 5 First Mission.
I’m also going to put out a pick 5 here as well. It’s called a “mandatory pay pick-5” since the early and late pick 5s are set to carryover in the rare instance that no one hits that wager. Best of luck everyone and here’s my pick 5. I’ll adjust on “Also Eligible” and/or my X account if need be.
Race 7: 4,5
Race 8: 4,5
Race 9: 4.5,9
Race 10: 6
Race 11: 3,5,9,10
Total cost of ticket: $24 (48 combinations at a 50-cent increment)