By Joe Quillen
Belmont at the Big A Race 8 – Paradise Creek Stakes
Happy Sunday everyone! We leave Baltimore with a few less dollars in our pockets and head up I-95. Don’t forget to wave to Citizens Bank Park where Major League Baseball’s team with the best record plays and continue up to New York for today’s eighth race, which is the Paradise Creek Stakes, where three-year-olds will go six furlongs on the main track.
I admit that sometimes when I go to the racetrack, like I did on Saturday to Harrah’s Philadelphia, I try to make mental notes of some tracks. Unfortunately, I did not get to watch any of the Belmont at the Big A races yesterday, but it does look like they escaped the rains that came down here in Philadelphia, and most notably, Baltimore. So I am expecting firm conditions on the turf course today.
Also, we also have a couple of notes for this race that we need to address before we handicap this race. First, the 1 Works for Me will be scratched. He ran in the fifth race on Saturday and did not hit the board.
It appears that the 6 Devil in Disguise (4/1 morning line) will run today. I say appears because this colt was entered in the finale at Gulfstream Park and was scratched. So barring anything unforeseen, he runs today in this featured race.
The 4 Sketch is favored here as the 5/2 morning line favorite. He’s coming off of a fifth place finish in the William Walker on May 1 at Churchill. He did make a move at the end, but he’s still finished three lengths behind. The breeding to me suggests he will want to go a route of ground on the turf. He is also second race off of the layoff and second race in North America after running last year in the UK.
The 5 Apollo Ten (3/1 ML) has been closer to the pace in his three turf races (two last year at Aqueduct and last month at Gulfstream). He broke his main at his distance and did win get to wire. However, my concern is that he only had to beat four runners last time out.
The speed in this race appears to be the 2 Feltrinelli (8/1 ML). He won coming off the layoff beating older horses. He’s back with straight three-year-olds here and could be alone on the lead here. He might move forward off of that having gotten a race under his belt this year.
A name that would get some money in New York is the 3 Mattingly who I would think is named after Yankees legend Don Mattingly, and if this horse isn’t named for the former Yankees first basement, let’s pretend he is. He returned from a four month break at Keeneland where he did not run that poorly in the Palisades, but he was swerving around in the stretch going from the rail the six or seven wide then swerving in some. If he can keep a straight path, which I think is possible since it appears the jock was trying to find him a place to close, he could be dangerous here with the race at Keeneland under his belt. He is bred to sprint on the turf, so let’s see what he can do today.
Summer in Adriane (12/1 ML) was close to start last time out and caught up while wide on the final turn. Be aware of this gelding as he could steal this at a nice price.
The aforementioned Devil in Disguise (4/1 ML) makes his turf debut after winning on the tapeta at Gulfstream Park. If he is on the Aqueduct grounds and runs today, he could be flying at the end.
If there is a horse that screams turf sprinter it is Mattingly. If he gets that straight path and closes, he will win this. I’ll take him over Sketch and Summer in Adrane. I will call this 3-4-8-2 and my play is $20 to win on the 3.
Check out my show “Also Eligible” on Saturday mornings at 10 am Eastern/7 am Pacific as AJ Johnson and I discuss the big races, the latest news in horse racing and much more! Note that “Also Eligible” will return on Saturday June 1 after taking off next weekend.