By Joe Quillen
Aqueduct & Monmouth Parks Racing Picks
We are looking at two races for three-year-olds as we will look at the Peter Pan Stakes, which is a prep race for the Belmont Stakes, and we will take our first look this year at Monmouth Park as we will look at the Long Branch Stakes, which is their opening day feature.
Let’s look first at the weather. It appears the weather will be fine tomorrow in both Queens, NY and Oceanport, NJ. You may see tracks with some sort of a wet track designation and then be fast by the time these two races hit post time on Saturday.
We will go in sequential order beginning with the Peter Pan, which is race number 6 on the card. This race is going a mile and an eighth on the main track. Note that for this year (and next year), this race will be going two turns around the main track at Aqueduct, instead of the one-turn, nine-furlong setup at Belmont. I’m not sure if that will make a difference, but it is worth noting in my opinion.
Scratch the morning line favorite Tuscan Gold (number 5). Chad Brown announced on Thursday that he was going to run in the Preakness next weekend. Also keep an eye to the change announcements at the start of the day because the 4 Lonesome Boy is cross entered in both of our featured races here today. I personally think that Lonesome Boy runs at Monmouth, but I did not see any information on his cross entry.
Assuming the morning line favorite’s role is the 3 The Wine Steward (5/2 morning line) who comes into this race second race off of the layoff. He was not far behind Encino in the Lexington Stakes last month at Keeneland, but he could not catch him. The Wine Steward has shown that he can go two turns in two graded stakes races, and the second race back from the layoff will look like a horse that could win and go to Saratoga next month.
The 6 Antiquarian (6/1 ML) may have a major excuse in his last race in the Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds. He broke through the gate and did not run the race that was expected from him as a result. He ran well despite the trouble and as long as he gets out of the gate without any issues, look out!
The 1 Protective (8/1 ML) bounced back after a disappointing return to the races in a maiden race at Tampa Bay Downs to finish a surprising third in the Wood Memorial last month. This could be Todd Pletcher’s “other horse” in the race, and would still have to improve to win, but could he break his maiden in a graded stakes race?
The 7 Deterministic (5/1 ML) probably bounced in the Wood last month. He won the Gotham in March here, but that was one-turn. He will get another chance at two turns here, and we will see if he can handle two turns or his connections should take advantage of the one-turn races at Aqueduct and the turn and a half mile races at Saratoga. Personally, I think he bounces back here with less horse flesh on the track for this race.
This may be a race that has six horses in the race, which may help some of these horses. I think Antiquarianlost the Louisiana Derby before it started and as long as he doesn’t break through the gate before the race, he wins this. I’ll call this 6-3-7-1 and my play is $20 to win on the 6.
Then it is Opening Day 2024 at Monmouth Park and we have eight horses running here as well in the Long Branch Stakes going a mile and seventy yards. It does look to me that Lonesome Boy would run here, but the 3 Rapture Bay is cross entered with a race on Sunday at Monmouth. Keep your eyes and ears open for changes for this race as well.
The favorite here drew the rail, ad that’s Heartened (9/5 ML). He has had two nice works at Belmont’s training track after just missing in an optional claiming race at Keeneland last month. He also wasn’t far off in the Tampa Bay Derby two back as well.
The 8 Evening News has only run well on the synthetic at Turfway Park, which may be problematic with the dirt at Monmouth today, but he could be worth a play here. He bounced in the Wood Memorial and is getting class relief here. He shortens up here, but will he get the lead here?
Why is that? We have a mystery horse here, but not as baffling of a mystery like the Japanese horses in the Kentucky Derby last week. The 2 Sugar Boy (6/1 ML) ran well in his return going seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs about six weeks ago. Don’t pay too much attention to the graded stakes wins at Camarero in terms of the grade because those grades are different in Puerto Rico than they are in the rest of the United States. But he is still dangerous nonetheless. But does he go for the lead or be more tactical?
The 6 Sea Streak (5/2 ML) could be interesting here. He will be stalking as well and looking to make a move as they turn for home. The only two turn race was a “meh” race in the Holy Bull, but you don’t have that class of horses here.
I think this race is setting up perfectly for the favorite here. He’s going to get targets to run at in the stretch and should win this here. I’ll gladly eat some chalk here and take Heartened here. Let’s call this 1-8-6-2 and my play is $20 to win on the 1.
Good luck everyone! Also, check my show out “Also Eligible” on Saturday mornings at 10 am Eastern/7 am Pacific as AJ Johnson and I discuss the big races, the latest news in horse racing and much more!