By Joe Quillen
Churchill Downs Race 11 – Kentucky Oaks
Welcome to one of my favorite weekends of the year, as today is Kentucky Oaks Day. The three-year-old fillies will have the spotlight today as a full field of 14 fillies will be going a mile and an eighth on the main track for a purse of $1.5 million. Not only can you watch the Churchill feed on your favorite advance deposit wagering site, like I use TwinSpires the most, the USA Network will be live tomorrow starting at 2 pm with some of the earlier races on the Friday card as well as the big race which goes to the post at 5:51 pm Eastern time.
Some news before I get into the race. First, rain is in the forecast today, so handicap appropriately for a sloppy race track.
Then we have some program changes for today and tomorrow. First, in the Oaks, Tapit Jenallie has been scratched. Trainer Eddie Milligan saw a potential issue on the hind end and chose to scratch her. Our Pretty Woman draws in off the also eligible list.
In the Derby, Encino was scratched on Tuesday. He has a soft tissue injury to his right front leg and should be back for the post-Triple Crown summer races. Epic Ride gets in from the also eligible list as well. Mugatu is on the outside looking in and will be scratched if one of the 20 horses in the gate don’t scratch before 9 am on Friday.
You can refer to my Kentucky Oaks Contender articles through my Bleacher Brothers author page so if you want my initial thoughts on the 14 horses running today. I had to break the field down into four articles because if I didn’t, it would have been a 5,000-word article.
Horses 2 through 14 shift one post position to their left (our right on the screen if we were watching at the start of the race) and the 15 Our Pretty Woman assumes the far outside post.
The 7 Fiona’s Magic is going to go to the lead. The question is who goes with her. The 4 Regulatory Risk looks like a candidate as he was at the front until the 3 Where’s My Ring passed her in the stretch.
The 2 Gin Gin isn’t fast enough or this field, but she has won at 9 furlongs, and did it on a muddy track at Aqueduct in January.
The 5 Thorpedo Anna will be stalking and ready to pounce when they turn for home.
The 6 Lemon Muffin did not show much in the Fantasy last time out at Oaklawn. She just missed in the slop in a maiden race, but it was 6 furlongs. She broke her maiden in the Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn two back.
The two fillies that exit the Fair Grounds Oaks are going to be dangerous. The favorite Tarifa has always been about two lengths back and has handled her three two-turn races so far.
Also keep an eye on the 15 Our Pretty Woman who drew in from Tapit Jenallie’s withdrawl. She doesn’t necessarily need the lead but has been on the lead the last two times out. If she goes for the lead, she will have about a furlong and a half to get over. But Joel Rosario will have options here depending on what the other fillies do.
The 13 Just F Y I won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last November at Santa Anita and she had a delayed return to the races after spiking a fever in March in the days leading up to return to the races. She ended up racing in the Ashland at Keeneland and ran willingly to the finish, but the 14 Leslie’s Rose had the better run that day last month.
I like the versatility of Our Pretty Woman here, and since I have my show “Also Eligible” which will be live at 8 am Saturday morning with a special two-hour show, I have to take the also eligible drawing in, right? Well, I liked the 15 here even if there was a 15 horse in the main field.
I am going to call say that Our Pretty Woman wins in an upset here, and let’s call this 15-8-13-5. Below are my plays for the Kentucky Oaks.
- First, $20 to win on the 15 Our Pretty Woman
- Second, a $1 superfecta box of 5, 8, 13 & 15, Note that the minimum for superfectas on Oaks and Derby Day, not just the two races, are $1. The 10-cent minimums will return next week.
- Finally, I announced this on Thursday’s Bleacher Brothers show. I gave out a Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby double of 15 (Our Pretty Woman) & the 7 Honor Marie. I’ll go $20 on this as well. If that double hits, good God the Brinks truck might be called!
The most important thing I want to say to all our readers here at Bleacher Brothers is bet within your means. The temptation is there. If you have a gambling problem, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
That’s it for now. Barring anything unforeseen, I will be at Parx around 5 pm for a couple of hours to take the Oaks in and who knows what else. Best of luck to everyone!