By Joe Quillen
Saturday 4/6 – Blue Grass Stakes
After the race at Aqueduct, the spotlight turns to Keeneland for the Blue Grass Stakes where we have 11 horses heading to the gate for an approximate post time of 5:52 pm Eastern time.
Favored in the Blue Grass today is the 10 Sierra Leone (2/1 morning line) who returned from a two month freshening to win the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds about six weeks ago at today’s distance. He just missed in December barely losing to the 4 Dornoch (3/1 ML) in the Remsen which was also at today’s distance.
Dornoch is the second race back from a layoff going gate to wire in the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream. His modus operandi is to go to the front, and that race he had in December was eye catching because when you thought he got passed in the stretch, he came back to nose out the favorite. He could be lone speed in this race as the 5 Good Money finished fourth in a blanket finish in that purse money only Tampa Bay Derby race, but that was a very slow pace that day.
The 11 Encino (12/1 ML) draws the outside in this race, but he’s going to run on regular dirt for the first time after three runs on the synthetic at Turfway. He showed that he did not have to be on the lead, closing to win by two in the Battaglia in February. He also gets an upgrade in the jockey with Flavien Prat in to ride today.
The 6 Just a Touch (7/2 ML) was very wide in the one-turn mile Gotham at Aqueduct on a very sloppy race track. He got a couple of workouts at Keeneland and could be stalking Dornoch here.
This looks like a race where you have to see if the track is running fair or there is some sort of a track bias with the track. I think Dornoch is a horse that could have an unpressured lead and go all the way around here in the Blue Grass. He will have to hold off Sierra Leone and Encino who figure to be a closing while Just a Touch should have first chance to pass Dornoch. I’ll call this 4-10-6-11 and my play is $20 to win on the 4. Good luck everyone!
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