By Joe Quillen
We begin the final major round of races for the Road to the Kentucky Derby, and we will head to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans for the Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. We have 12 horses fighting for their share 200 points (including 100 points to the winner) and potentially a spot in one of the 20 Kentucky Derby gates. This mile and three-sixteenths race, the longest prep race in North America, is the finale of the 12 race card with a post time of 6:42 Eastern time.
Starting for the rail out, Triple Espresso (20/1 morning line, 0 Kentucky Derby points) runs on the dirt for the first time today, but his only win was in a maiden race in January. Probably will be back on the turf after this failed experiment.
The 2 Hall of Fame (8/1 ML, 0 KYD points) did have some trouble last time out and was very wide at the quarter pole. He also had to contend with a sloppy track last month in the Risen Star. The track will be fast today, so some may toss that last race.
Antiquarian (12/1 ML, 0 KYD points) is the number 3 horse for this race and broke his maiden in the slop last month here on Risen Star Day. He goes from a maiden win to a Grade 2 race. He might have the trip, but this is only his third start. But there is also the John Velasquez/Todd Pletcher angle here.
The 4 is Agate Road (8/1 ML, 10 KYD points) will probably need a top three finish to get into the gate for the Derby. He just missed in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs in his dirt debut. He does have the long stretch (about ¼ mile to the finish) to pass some tiring rivals here if things go crazy up front.
The 5 Catching Freedom (4/1 ML, 25 KYD points) was in tight quarters in the final furlong of the Risen Star, btu I don’t think he would have gotten past Track Phantom who also returns today. If he has a cleaner trip, he could get the 100 points and a trip to Louisville for the first Saturday in May.
Awesome Ruta (#6, 30/1 ML, 0 KYD points) did not show much in the Risen Star and looks like he will probably not be much of a factor again today.
The 7 Honor Marie (8/1 ML, 15 KYD points) ran okay after being on a three-month layoff, but he will need points to get into the Kentucky Derby field. This is the second race off of the layoff, and with having to face the slop at Fair Grounds last month, he probably needed that race. I expect some improvement today.
The 8 Next Level (30/1 ML, 0 KYD points) was never in it in the Rebel at Oaklawn last month. He looks like he’s a horse that needs to get the lead early. I don’t think this happens with Track Phantom on the outside. We might be looking at a replay of the Gun Runner from December where he quickly faded.
The 9 Real Men Violin (20/1 ML, 5 KYD points) was in the same boat as Honor Marie last time out in the Risen Star. If the form that he had in his two-year-old year returns with the second race back from the layoff today, he could hit the board here.
The 10 Common Defense (6/1 ML, 27 KYD points) is currently tenth in the Kentucky Derby points standings, so there is a good chance that he could be in Louisville in May, but you would always want a few extra points, right? He woke back up in the Rebel last month but wasn’t going to catch Timberlake no matter what. He tries to get some additional points here, and if he has a similar trip, does he find a way to the winners circle?
The 11 Tuscan Gold (8/1 ML, 0 KYD points) won very impressively at Gulfstream on January 31, but he will be facing winners with a chance to run in the Derby. If he can duplicate that trip he could be getting his picture taken.
The favorite is on the outside here today. The 12 Track Phantom (3/1 ML favorite, 55 KYD points) already has the points to run in the Derby, but he could win three of the four prep races that the Fair Grounds offers. If it wasn’t for Sierra Leone, he’d be going for the Louisiana Slam (yes, I Just made that up). We know his modus operandi. He’s going to the front and he’s going to see if someone is going to catch him.
But it will be very interesting in seeing who goes with Track Phantom. I admit that the question is whether or not he can get over from the far outside, which he will have approximately a quarter of a mile do so, to get into his familiar spot. I see horses lining up right behind him in Antiquarian and possibly next level.
The question you have to ask is whether or not he can get that tenth and final furlong. Was that race for Track Phantom dumb luck that he got caught be Sierra Leone, or is he a nine furlong horse. This race may answer that going an extra sixteenth of a mile.
I am going to try to beat the favorite here. Honor Marie needed the race. Catching Freedom needed the race and ran very well, and I think Real Men Violin might surprise here. I’ll call this 4-11-7-9 and my play is $20 to win on the 4. Good luck everyone!
Saturday Specials
There may be other specials that your favorite advance deposit wagering platform may offer, but here are the ones that I found on Twinspires and TVG which focus on Fair Grounds and Turfway on Saturday. You do have to opt in to any or all of these promotions.
Twinspires
- There are Money Back wagers on Twinspires for races 10 & 12 at Turfway, and Race 12 at Fair Grounds. You get a max refund of $!0 if your horse finishes second or third. Accounts will be credited on Monday.
- There is a 15% boost on all winning win, exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagers on all races. Max bonus is $25, and races must have at least 5 horses running. Good for all races at Fair Grounds and Turfway on Saturday. Accounts will be credited on Monday.
- There is a Bayou Bluegrass Pick 5 on Saturday. Races are Fair Grounds (FG) race 9, Turfway Park (TP) race 11, FG race 11, TP race 12, FG race 12. Anyone who opts in and hits this special pick 5 on Twinspires splits a $5,000 prize pool with other winners. Accounts will be credited on Monday.
- There is a $2,000 Fair Grounds Hit It & Split it promotion. This is for Fair Ground’s late pick 5. Winners betting on Twinspires platform split the pot. Accounts will be credited on Monday.
TVG
- TVG has their Money Back Special on the Jeff Ruby Steaks (TP Race 12) and the Louisiana Derby. Have to opt in, and you will get up to $10 back if your horse finishes second or third. Usually the return on the credit is quicker than Twinspires.
Follow Joe on Twitter/Instagram/Threads @JoeQuills. Check out the Bleacher Brothers Show from 8 to 10 pm Eastern Time on the Tony Bruno Sports Network app! Also check Joe’s sports stream podcast on Twitch every Tuesday and Thursday at 10 pm ET, and his YouTube channel where you can catch the show on demand.