By Joe Quillen
Wednesday 3/20/24 – Tampa Bay Downs Race 8
We head back to familiar grounds today as we head to our Wednesday stomping grounds (for what I think will be until the beginning of May) as we head to Tampa Bay Downs for today’s eighth race which is a maiden special race for three-year-olds and up going six furlongs on the main track. Post time for this race is 4:25 pm Eastern time.
Favored in today’s featured race is the 4 D Hopper (9/5 morning line) who returns from an 11-month layoff. Something went wrong for this now five-year-old gelding who also changed ownership and trainer since last time out. He actually won his debut last March, but he was disqualified for interference in the stretch. Off of the two races in the program, he looks like he wants and needs the lead, but after a long layoff, could there be a different running style? He is five now, and you know about teaching old dogs new tricks.
There are quite a few first timers here in this race. A horse that might draw some interest is the 1 Dunkin’ Run (12/1 ML) who is a three-year-old taking on holder horses here. I might want to see him get this race under this belt and possibly go back to a three-year-old race, but despite that, his sire Omaha Beach has his offspring win 22% of the time (15 for 68) as a first-time starter. Some food for thought for those who like first timers.
Other first timers include the 5 Mr. Demeanor (10/1 ML) whose sire Poseidon’s Warrior’s offspring only win 5% of the time (10 for 172) as first time starters. The 6 Findaname (8/1 ML) is a bit of a mystery with his sire Force the Pass who only has 24 offspring per DRF Formulator, and is 1 for 12 so far with first time starters.
The 8 Fortysixcounts (4/1 ML) may want longer here, as his sire Khozan’s horses average almost 7 furlongs per win and are 14% with first time starters. The 8 does have some nice works there and will have the outside post to work with for his jockey.
The 2 Paez (10/1 ML) might be worth a look too, as he is running in his first race back from a layoff after his New Year’s Eve race. He was pulled up, which is not a good sign, but he does have a nice run first start on the dirt in early December.
I’m going to take a chance on the first timer Fortysixcounts here. Top trainer, good trainer that win a lot together. I’ll call this 8-4-1-2 and my place is $20 to win on the 8. Good luck everyone!
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