We have another cancellation at Parx due to the cold weather that has enveloped the region, so all eyes will be on Tampa Bay Downs today as they are the only thoroughbred track running today. The weather will not be an issue for this Christmas Eve card.
Today’s race is a bit of a Parx special, as we will look at race six on their card. We have a field of 13 maiden fillies and mares going five and a half furlongs on the main track with up to 12 horses running in this race.
Tampa Bay Downs Race 6 – Maiden Claiming 10k
Favored in today’s featured race is the 6 Adios Tipsy (3/1 morning line). She is a first time starter who gives me some mixed signals. The trainer is 0 for 12 with first time starters, but the filly’s sire Adios Charlie does get 13% winners with three-year-olds and up who are first time starters (vs. 9% average). The sire also gets 17% winners overall versus a 13% average for all three-year-old entrants. But you can argue this isn’t the toughest race in the world.
The 2 Starship Sophia (4/1 ML) is an interesting entry here. She is a five-year-old mare who is making her debut here. You don’t see many five-year-olds making their debut, especially with a week left in the calendar year. She has been working since September to run here. It will be interesting to see what happens with her today.
The 8 Don’t Tell Amy (12/1 ML) is third race off of a layoff and does have a bit of a good race bad race pattern going lately. Last time out at Gulfstream, she steadied about around the six-furlong pole and didn’t show much after that. She comes across the state to Tampa Bay Downs today to try to break through here today.
The 1 Barbaresco Baby (15/1 ML) also makes the trek from Gulfstream to Tampa Bay Downs today. She ran her best race on the Tapeta there. She got bumped around at the start but still did run well on the front end. In the stretch she floated wide, which may be a concern. But she does draw the rail for this race.
Joe’s Pick
What this race lacks in talent makes up for it as a puzzle that is very hard to solve. I’m going to take a swing on one of the Gulfstream shippers here. I’ll take Don’t Tell Amy to win this race here today as I think her good race bad race trend will continue.
I’ll call this race 8-3-1-2 and my play is $20 to win on the 8. Merry Christmas everyone, and Santa Claus and I will see you in the winner’s circle!