By Joe Quillen
Wednesday 2/28/24 – Tampa Bay Downs Race 5
We head south to Tampa Bay Downs for the Wednesday Quills Picks Winners, and today’s race is a mile and a sixteenth turf race for three-year-olds. From what I can tell the weather will be fine for this fairly early race which goes off at approximately 2:30 pm Eastern time.
There are 11 horses entered for today’s race, but it does look like we will have a maximum of nine horses running. The 1 Sheer Delight (2/1 morning line) and the 11 King Faliero (4/1 ML) are entered to run on the main track only, which does happen from time to time at different tracks.
Favored among the projected nine horses that do not have the “main track only” tag is the 9 Crowned Jewel (5/2 ML) who has faced tougher in his last two races at Tampa. He did break his maiden at Belterra in October, but he hasn’t shown that much. But you can argue that he was facing older three-year-olds on the turf, so there is some class relief there for those that like to play that angle. Also, the Jesus Castanon/Eoin Hardy jock/trainer angle is strong as well as this combo has won 28% of the time in a small stat sample at Tampa over the last year or so, and 21% at all tracks.
The 7 Lord Knows (3/1 ML) broke his maiden at the start of the Tampa meet in November and has run fairly well the last two. There were some traffic issues in his first start against winners and did show some kick last time out. He does go an extra sixteenth of a mile today.
It looks like the 4 Dr Schuster (8/1 ML) is the speed in this race if he can transfer his early speed to the turf. He did have a failed go on the turf once, but it was last August at Monmouth. I can see going back to the turf here, but I would need to see a race before plunking any of my money onto him.
The 2 Deep Strike (7/2 ML) does look like someone who could challenge for the lead, but I think he would probably be a length or two behind the 4.
The 8 Ehsaan (6/1 ML) broke his maiden last month here at Tampa and does appear to have a closing kick. He did get bumped around at the start but recovered nicely with that kick to break his maiden. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is on the board here.
In the end, as long as Deep Strike doesn’t have a bad trip along the rail here, I think he wins here. This is an interesting race here as Ehsaan could be closing. Lord Knows should be doing the same. How Crowned Jewel reacts to the class drop should be interesting too. I’ll call this 2-9-8-7 and my play is $20 to win on the 2. Good luck everyone, and we will do it again tomorrow here on Bleacher Brothers with another Quills Picks Winners.
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