Inside the AAC week 10: headlines and predictions as conference play wages on

The halfway point of the season has come and gone and as week 10 of the season gets underway, some teams are dominating while others are hoping to turn it around before it is too late.

Tulane started off the week with a dominating victory over Charlotte, winning their 6th straight game and 5 straight AAC games to move to 7-2. Darian Mensah continues to get the job done as the true freshman has played turnover free football in 5 out of their 6 straight wins and against Charlotte he eclipsed 200 passing yards for the 3rd time this year. It hasn’t just been the Mensah show, as Makhi Hughes rushed for 117 yards and 2 scores against Charlotte, which was his 4th straight game over 100 yards and he has eclipsed that in 6 out of 9 games on the year. As for the defense, they’ve been a ball hawking crew, recording a pick 6 against Charlotte and they’ve scored defensively in 4 out of their last 6 games.

For Charlotte, it was a tough loss as they brought an incredible atmosphere which started with their students showing out for a Matt Barrie & Dan Mullen led sports center like it was college gameday. After they brought Memphis to the brink of defeat and fell short, they totally collapsed against Tulane passing for only 69 yards between Deshawn Purdie and Max Brown. Brown entered the game after Purdie threw a pick 6 and although Purdie struggled, Brown was worse completing 2/10 passes for 3 yards and now sitting at 3-6 they will have to win out to reach a Bowl game. The 49ers have a manageable schedule facing off against USF, FAU and UAB, who all at the time of this piece are under .500, however Charlotte will need to decide which QB gives them the best odds at reaching that, as the rotating cycle hasn’t provided anything fruitful, but at the same time no QB has asserted themselves as a #1 option.

On Friday, FAU takes on USF in a battle of 2 teams looking to turn their seasons around, while Saturday features Navy taking on Air Force in the second leg of the CIF trophy, Memphis taking on a UTSA team who squandered a 3 score lead to a now rejuvenated Tulsa squad who takes on UAB and lastly Navy takes on Rice in the first game without Mike Bloomgreen since 2017 for the Owls.

USF v FAU

The Bulls head to Boca Raton for a battle with the Owls and it’s a game which features 2 teams who are both looking to find their mojo and make a last minute push for a Bowl game.

USF started out the season showing a lot of potential keeping games close between Alabama and Miami, however during the first game of AAC play Byrum Brown went down with an injury which has left this Bulls squad lacking an identity offensively and it has cost them the first 2 games of conference play. They found success last week against UAB, getting their first big game on the ground since week 3 against Southern Miss, coming back from down multiple scores to defeat UAB to put them at 3-4 heading into this one.

FAU has been very inconsistent offensively so far this season, as they started out at 1-3 and couldn’t get much going through the air through the first 4 games. However, they won 2 out of their next 3 and against UNT although they lost, Cam Fancher had his best game of the season throwing for over 300 yards and 3 TDs, but last game against UTSA it came crashing back down as the offense failed to pass for over 100 yards and it cost them. Defensively, the Owls have been solid, sitting at top 25 in the country in takeaways, while coming off one of their best pass rushing performances of the season against UTSA, a game in which they had double digit pressures and multiple sacks.

This game is going to come down to which team is able to break through offensively as both squads have struggled at times this season, but with limited time to turn it around one of these squads will use this game as an opportunity to bounce back, the question is which one.

Both FAU and USF have an ability to bring pressure and frustrate an opposing quarterback, however where the Owls have an advantage is in the secondary as Buggs Brown, Daedae Hill and Wendol Philord at CB and CJ Heard, Phil Dunnam and Jayden Williams at DB have faired solid this season, especially against unproven QBs. USF last week allowed a career day for UAB backup QB Jalen Kitna as he finished with over 300 yards and 2 TDs for the first time in his career and it almost led the Blazers to a surprising upset victory.

If FAU can limit Kelly Joiner and USF’s other backs and force Bryce Archie into a one-dimensional offense, their defense has the ability to wreak havoc in this one and with USF’s defensive struggles against the pass this is an opportunity for the Owls to find their mojo and gain an in state rivalry win. FAU has to execute, not allowing little mistakes to ruin drives on both sides of the ball, but if they are able to do that, this is a game that the Owls win.

Pick FAU ML +115

Memphis vs UTSA

Memphis comes into this matchup sitting at 7-1 and have found a way to win 4 and a row following a tough loss to Navy in week 4. UTSA comes in after squandering a multiple score lead on the road to Tulsa, ultimately losing 46-45 and after they looked to have bounced back following a win over FAU, they now sit at 3-5 with Memphis, UNT, and Army all remaining on the schedule.

UTSA was gashed through the air by Tulsa backup Cooper Legas to the tune of 333 yards 5 TDs and it was a disappointing performance following a week where they held FAU to less than 100 passing yards. Now they face one of the best passing offenses in the AAC in Memphis and with QB Seth Henigan coming off of a Charlotte game in which he struggled, this could be a potential matchup where he looks to bounce back against a defense that is reeling.

Something that could keep UTSA in this game is their ability to stop the run as they have held 4 out of their last 5 opponents to under 100 yards and with Henigan’s recent struggles if they can limit their run game that could potentially cause problems for the Memphis offense. Mario Anderson Jr is the most talented back they have faced to this point however, and it is easier said than done shutting him down so it will require a really solid run defense to lock him up.

UTSA’s morale has been damaged following losses to both Rice and Tulsa, teams they have fared well against recently and especially following last week’s gut-wrenching defeat, this team may be reeling. With Memphis coming in looking to for a statement win and UTSA reeling, this game has a chance to get away from the Road-Runners and fast if they don’t come out rejuvenated.

I believe this becomes a huge win for Memphis as they look to keep themselves in the convo for an AAC title and one Seth Henigan reminds people why he is one of the best QBs in the AAC.

Pick- Memphis -7.5

Air Force vs Army

The second leg of the commander in chief’s trophy commences this week as Air Force heads to West point for a battle with Army in a game that may not be very close. Air Force has been gashed in the run game in all but one of their games this season and facing off against an Army team that is looking to remain in the CFP conversation, this may be a game where Army runs and keeps on running.

Army comes rejuvenated following a bye week and they have won all of their games this season by multiple scores, gashing teams in the trenches and leaving them in the dust. Bryson Daly, Kanye Udoh and Noah Short have combined to be a deadly trio, with Daly hurting them in the QB run game through the option, while Udoh and Short grinding out yards with the occasional big play from the RB position.

Air Force has been plagued with inconsistencies on both sides of the ball as defensively , their run defense has been atrocious and while some games they have had a solid pass defense, others they have been hurt through the air. In their last game they allowed 205 yards rushing to Colorado State, while Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi completed 60% of his passes for 178 yards and a score.

If Air Force is going to remain in this game they’re going to have their best game of the season in run defense and against a fellow option team it is possible, but highly unlikely. In a similar story to Memphis, Army needs statement wins to remain in CFP conversation and winning a leg of the CIF trophy in dominating fashion will catch some eyes and be very important in a potential push for a CFP.

Pick- Army -21.5

Tulsa v UAB
Tulsa comes into this matchup with a boat load of momentum following their ferocious come from behind victory against, where backup Cooper Legas came in and threw for over 300 yards and 5 TDs, leading the Golden Hurricane to a 46-45 victory. UAB comes in with opposite momentum, as the Blazers blew a multiple score lead to USF 2 weeks ago and despite a career day from Jalen Kitna the Blazers now sit at 1-6.

UAB has struggled this season and now facing off against a rejuvenated Tulsa squad the path to turning it around got even harder with their comeback victory from last week. If Cooper Legas is able to have half the performance he had last week, this is a game where Tulsa could run away in the first half. Tulsa has also had a solid ground game this season, with Anthony Watkins and Bill Jackson combining to be a solid force in the backfield and if they’re able to get going alongside Legas this could be a long day for the Blazers.

Tulsa held UTSA to under 150 rushing yards last week and if they are able to shut down Lee Bebee Jr. this is a game where they win in a big fashion as they look to turn their season around and make a push to a bowl.

Pick- Tulsa ML +120

Navy v Rice

Navy takes on Rice in a game where the Midshipmen need to bounce back following a drubbing at the hands of Notre Dame 2 weeks ago. Rice comes in following the firing of their Head Coach Mike Bloomgreen and this will be the first game since 2017 without him on the sideline.

Navy has been able to dominate teams in the trenches this season and normally it leads to wins, however last week Notre Dame won despite Navy rushing for 222 yards on the ground. Notre Dame was able to gash Navy in the run game as Jeremiyah Love and Riley Leonard combined for 185 yards rushing and 3 TDs and despite racking up yardage Navy was unable to find the endzone.

This game will be a different story as Rice has been hurt in the run game recently and even if they are able to limit their endzone trips, the Rice offense hasn’t provided anything fruitful to show they could pull off what Notre Dame was able to.

Navy comes into this one as 11 point favorites and I envision them winning by more than that, backed by a big day on the ground and one where they really stymie the FAU offense.

Pick Navy -11