Barely an hour after the final out of the World Series, New York Yankees slugger Juan Soto declared himself open for business on the free agent market.
His asking price might be beyond the comfort zone for most clubs, but Soto is keeping an open mind as he approaches the biggest payday of his life.
“I don’t know (which teams) are going to come after me,” Soto said at Yankee Stadium early Thursday morning. “Definitely, I’ll be open to this and every single team. I don’t have any doors closed. I’m gonna be available for all 30 teams.”
Soto figures to be the priciest centerpiece in free agency, which unofficially got underway once the Los Angeles Dodgers put away the New York Yankees in Game 5 on Wednesday. By rule, players can’t sign with new teams before Monday at 5 p.m. ET.
Other top free agent hitters available include third baseman Alex Bregman, first baseman Pete Alonso and shortstop Willy Adames. The top-tier pitchers in the market include right-hander Corbin Burnes and left-handers Max Fried and (probably) Blake Snell, who is widely expected to opt out of his contract with the San Francisco Giants. Snell’s most recent foray into free agency a year ago dragged into late March.
The wild card in free agency remains right-hander Roki Sasaki, who is said to the best pitcher in Japan. However, he would need to be allowed to leave by his Japanese team, the Chiba Lotte Marines. A plurality of analysts (but not all) don’t expect Sasaki to jump to MLB yet. But he could.
The current restrictions on Sasaki’s contract for MLB theoretically could make him the most widely coveted player this offseason. He wouldn’t cost $325 million like Yoshinobu Yamamoto did with the Dodgers a year ago.
With the hot stove kicking on for 2024-25, let’s take a look at a potential destination for Soto this offseason, along with possible landing spots for other players said to be on the move, and where their movement might leave certain clubs.
–Juan Soto
Expect the deal for Soto to dwarf all others. His reported price, perhaps $55 million to $60 million annually and somewhere between $500 million and $700 million overall depending on contract length, might be prohibitive for many teams. Some analysts have predicted as many as 14 years for Soto, who just turned 26 last week. No matter the length, average annual value (AAV) or opt-outs, it’s virtually certain the Yankees and New York Mets will lead the pursuit, with the Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres also eager.
Soto batted .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs, 109 RBIs, 129 walks, and a league-leading 128 runs scored in 2024 for the Yankees, who reached the World Series for the first time since 2009. Only teammate Aaron Judge and Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani performed as well better on offense individually, and Soto also is nominated for a Gold Glove. Come the postseason, Soto put up similarly dominant offensive numbers (.327/.469/.633 with four homers, nine RBIs and 14 walks in 14 games).
Soto had an opportunity two years ago to forgo free agency but turned down an extension offer from Washington reportedly worth 15 years and $440 million. And during the World Series, Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, told reporters the death of Padres owner Peter Seidler last November ended the chances of Soto signing an extension there. Instead, the Padres traded Soto to the Yankees.
Whatever the final figure, there is a good chance Soto’s deal will have more value than Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million agreement with the Dodgers from the previous offseason, which is closer to $460 million in present-day value because of deferrals and inflation. As with Ohtani a year ago, expect a deal around the time of the Winter Meetings, which start Dec. 9 in Dallas.
Prediction for Soto: 13 years, $702 million with the Mets.
–Roki Sasaki
Sasaki turns 23 years old on Sunday and throws 100 mph with a devastating splitter. If his Japanese team posts him, Sasaki’s U.S. salary (along with Chiba’s fee) would be limited by rules agreed to by the respective leagues.
Sasaki reportedly is going to ask to be posted for a second straight year, hoping the Marines have a change of heart. The Nippon Professional Baseball posting window lasts 45 days for negotiations and could open for Sasaski as soon as the Japanese postseason concludes this weekend.
A year ago, it took Yamamoto about 2 1/2 weeks to agree with the Dodgers after his posting window opened.
Prediction for Sasaki: Staying in Japan until at least next season.
–Corbin Burnes
Burnes, a four-time All-Star and former Cy Young Award winner, went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA in 32 starts this year during his lone season in Baltimore.
New Orioles owner David Rubenstein has to nudge GM Mike Elias to start spending some cash to supplement the youth movement that ending up stalling the club’s ascent in 2024.
Prediction for Burnes: 6 years, $230 million with the Orioles.
–Alex Bregman
The Tigers made leaps and bounds in 2024 but still need to add everyday position players to supplement left-hander Tarik Skubal and overtake the Cleveland Guardians in the American Leaue Central. Adding a player such as Bregman, who would be reuniting with former Houston Astros manager A.J. Hinch, would allow Matt Vierling to play another position after he finished the 2024 season at third base.
Prediction for Bregman: 7 years, $179 million with the Detroit Tigers.
–Max Fried
The Braves have signed a lot of young talent to team-friendly deals, but keeping Fried is going to require a deeper investment.
Prediction for Fried: 6 years, $180 million with the Braves.
–Willy Adames
Fortifying shortstop was one area were the Dodgers failed in 2024, though Tommy Edman did come through on offense while manning the position in October. Adames would help Los Angeles on both offense and defense.
Prediction for Adames: 6 years, $155 million with the Dodgers.
–Blake Snell, Pete Alonso
The Yankees can explain letting Soto away, or could try to do so, by packaging Snell and Alonso to their fans, along with the return of Gerrit Cole after they add a guaranteed year to his contract to circumvent his opt-out. Stealing a Mets hero such as Alonso might soften the blow for Soto’s exit, and adding front-line depth to the rotation with Snell could help the Yankees position themselves for another World Series run.
Prediction for Snell: 3 years, $100 million with the Yankees.
Prediction for Alonso: 7 years, $195 million with the Yankees.
These signings leave second-tier players for teams such as the Astros, Phillies, Padres, Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks.
–David Brown, Field Level Media